Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:57:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x1001…6438 world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$99 (+1%) realized +$99 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate31%12W / 27L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$13
14 days+$38
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$47
other 28% +$53
economics 16% −$1
politics 11% $0
sports 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.4% -8.3% 50% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 22 +1.1% -8.5% 36% 9% -7.3%
≤90d 36 -3.6% -12.8% 31% 6% -8.7%
all 39 -2.5% -11.8% 31% 8% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 8% -8.2%
10% -20.2% 5% -17.0%
15% -27.9% 0% -25.0%
20% -35.0% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×6.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.14 per $1 lost it wins $5.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized+$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses12 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage137d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $136 $136 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $132 +$4 +3%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $49 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $144 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $138 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $331 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $115 +$8 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $7 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $257 −$4 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $148 +$33 +22%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $13 −$2 -17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $18 −$3 -14%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $149 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $205 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $121 −$1 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $114 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $107 +$8 +8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $107 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $73 +$12 +16%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $117 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $22 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $106 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $19 −$12 -61%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $73 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $186 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $626 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $569 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $567 +$2 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $71 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $567 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $566 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 11 $838 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Feb 06 $166 +$53 +32%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 06 $448 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $136 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 62¢ $136 10h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $98 14h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $34 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $14 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $26 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $49 23h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $145 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $144 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $102 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $131 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $71 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $38 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $22 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $71 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $61 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $18 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 73¢ $123 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $115 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $12 6d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.07 · official $135.82 (match) · 170 history records