Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:53:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0ffe…be6f other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 1032d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,951 (-25%) realized −$2,013 · open +$62
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate30%7W / 16L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$298per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$859now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days−$273
14 days−$163
30 days+$512
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$1,147
politics 31% −$987
other 16% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-48.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.7% -11.1% 67% 33% -34.2%
≤30d 6 +32.4% +19.8% 83% 67% +14.0%
≤90d 6 +32.4% +19.8% 83% 67% +14.0%
all 23 -43.3% -48.7% 30% 26% -38.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.7% 26% -38.0%
10% -53.6% 26% -43.9%
15% -58.1% 22% -49.3%
20% -62.2% 13% -54.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$560) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -66% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$162 vs −$219 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1032d coverage
Net worth$859
Realized−$2,013
Unrealized+$62
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses7 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions3
Markets (closed)23 / 26
History coverage1032d
Avg bet$298
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 30¢ $500 $475 −$25 (-5%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 2.5 Under 66¢ 70¢ $200 $214 +$14 (+7%)
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 51¢ 90¢ $98 $170 +$73 (+75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $309 +$31 +10%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $591 −$349 -59%
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $101 +$44 +44%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $86 +$23 +27%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$87 +86%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $784 +$675 +86%
Champions League Quarterfinals: Bayern vs. Inter Milan Apr 17 $560 +$223 +40%
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 21 $430 −$430 -100%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 21 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 21 $650 −$650 -100%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 21 $502 −$502 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 21 $134 −$134 -100%
Was Milei hacked? Feb 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? Jan 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? Jan 01 $90 −$10 -11%
Will Daniel Naroditsky win the 2024 World Rapid Championship? Jan 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2024 World Rapid Championship? Jan 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? Jan 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will LA Galaxy win the MLS Cup? Nov 09 $42 $0 +0%
Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election? Nov 07 $500 −$426 -85%
Will a Democrat win Wisconsin Presidential Election? Nov 07 $580 −$502 -87%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $101 +$51 +50%
Argentina Presidential Election: Will Javier Milei win? Nov 19 $1,196 −$109 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 32¢ $510 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $202 13h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $340 41h
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $458 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 SELL Under 48¢ $243 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Under 28¢ $30 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Under 25¢ $103 3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 7d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 7d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 7d
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 8d
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro BUY Yes 51¢ $99 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $86 10d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $101 13d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $223 26d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $96 26d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $431 26d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $33 26d
Champions League Quarterfinals: Bayern vs. Inter Milan BUY Inter Milan 71¢ $310 436d
Champions League Quarterfinals: Bayern vs. Inter Milan BUY Inter Milan 72¢ $250 439d
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? BUY Yes 18¢ $110 489d
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the UEFA Champions League? BUY Yes $104 489d
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 489d
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? BUY Yes 18¢ $100 489d
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 489d
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? BUY Yes 18¢ $40 489d
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? BUY Yes 18¢ $50 489d
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? BUY Yes 18¢ $100 489d
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? BUY Yes 19¢ $650 489d
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? BUY Yes 15¢ $502 489d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $859.38 · official $859.38 (match) · 90 history records