Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:48:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

0F 0x0ffd…d98b other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$29 (+5%) realized +$29 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$85per market

Trades / day6.9pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit29%portable

Net worth$289now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-6.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+3.7%	-6.2%	50%	50%	-1.7%
≤30d	2	+3.7%	-6.2%	50%	50%	-1.7%
≤90d	2	+3.7%	-6.2%	50%	50%	-1.7%
all	2	+3.7%	-6.2%	50%	50%	-1.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-6.2%	50%	-1.7%
10%	-15.2%	50%	-11.1%
15%	-23.4%	50%	-19.7%
20%	-30.9%	50%	-27.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +9% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$165 vs −$140 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.18 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$289

Realized+$29

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions5

Markets (closed)2 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$85

Trades / day6.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	22¢	24¢	$60	$65	+$5 (+8%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	19¢	19¢	$60	$60	−$0 (-0%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	3¢	3¢	$60	$59	−$1 (-2%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	25¢	24¢	$60	$59	−$1 (-2%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$49	$46	−$3 (-6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime?	Jun 25	$154	+$165	+107%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Second half draw?	Jun 24	$144	−$140	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	6¢	$51	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	25¢	$62	1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	3¢	$62	1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	22¢	$62	1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	19¢	$62	1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Second half draw?	BUY Yes	39¢	$144	25h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime?	BUY Yes	47¢	$154	25h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $288.63 · official $288.63 (match) · 8 history records