Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:56:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

0F 0x0ffb…26e5 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$20 (+2%) realized +$20 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip

Net edge-4%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$240per market

Trades / day2.6pace

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-4.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+5.9%	-4.2%	50%	50%	-7.1%
≤30d	4	+5.9%	-4.2%	50%	50%	-7.1%
≤90d	4	+5.9%	-4.2%	50%	50%	-7.1%
all	4	+5.9%	-4.2%	50%	50%	-7.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.2%	50%	-7.1%
10%	-13.4%	0%	-16.0%
15%	-21.7%	0%	-24.1%
20%	-29.4%	0%	-31.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 60% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +3% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$27 vs −$14 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$20

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage3d

Avg bet$240

Trades / day2.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$271	+$32	+12%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$291	−$22	-8%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	Jun 20	$299	−$6	-2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$100	+$21	+21%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$303	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$271	3h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	5¢	$269	3h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	5¢	$291	3h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	SELL Yes	89¢	$293	3h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	BUY Yes	90¢	$299	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$121	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	82¢	$100	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records