Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:03:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0F 0x0ff7…5131 other 123 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$731 (-3%) realized −$746 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate75%79W / 26L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$4,873now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$770
7 days−$409
14 days−$833
30 days−$833
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$667
finance 17% −$1,635
world 6% +$144
economics 5% −$2
crypto 0% +$5
tech 0% $0
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -9.2% -17.8% 70% 34% -12.4%
≤30d 105 -0.5% -10.0% 75% 45% -13.3%
≤90d 105 -0.5% -10.0% 75% 45% -13.3%
all 105 -0.5% -10.0% 75% 45% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 45% -13.3%
10% -18.6% 18% -21.6%
15% -26.4% 7% -29.2%
20% -33.7% 2% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$80 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$4,873
Realized−$746
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses79 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)105 / 123
History coverage14d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? No 97¢ 97¢ $1,622 $1,615 −$7 (-0%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 95¢ $1,100 $1,070 −$30 (-3%)
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 92¢ 99¢ $906 $973 +$67 (+7%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $600 $597 −$3 (-0%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 72¢ 64¢ $217 $190 −$27 (-12%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 81¢ 95¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 84¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+13%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $42 $43 +$2 (+4%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 88¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? No 74¢ 38¢ $30 $16 −$14 (-48%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? No 92¢ 86¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-7%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 99¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+14%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 74¢ 78¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic 83¢ 76¢ $8 $8 −$1 (-9%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? No 87¢ 86¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 22 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 22 $10 −$6 -64%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $20 −$13 -63%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $20 −$6 -29%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $271 +$30 +11%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $16 +$2 +12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $19 +$2 +12%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,702 +$56 +3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $90 +$2 +2%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 21 $100 −$1 -2%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,802 +$68 +4%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $50 −$34 -67%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 21 $70 −$70 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 11? Jun 21 $605 −$605 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $50 −$19 -39%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $43 +$5 +12%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,503 +$96 +4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 19 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $100 +$18 +18%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $1,119 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$2 +7%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +43%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$5 +16%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $602 +$54 +9%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $606 +$44 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $98 +$25 +25%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $146 +$16 +11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$15 +14%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $501 +$26 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $201 +$17 +8%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$7 +7%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $101 +$19 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 16 $162 −$72 -44%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 16? Jun 16 $100 −$3 -3%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $128 +$17 +13%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $161 +$23 +14%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $110 +$7 +7%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$6 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 97¢ $42 2m
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL Yes 92¢ $42 2m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 87¢ $4 1h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 33¢ $4 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $500 1h
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $601 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 77¢ $10 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $1,001 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 72¢ $10 1h
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 26¢ $7 1h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 50¢ $14 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $80 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 72¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $8 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $90 21h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 93¢ $99 21h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $8 22h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $60 22h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 97¢ $1,602 22h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $201 22h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 97¢ $100 25h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 30¢ $16 25h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 88¢ $41 25h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 55¢ $31 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 47h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 88¢ $50 47h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $1,001 47h
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 98¢ $1,001 47h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $601 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,872.97 · official $4,872.97 (match) · 333 history records