Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:19:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0ff5…8a6c sports 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$22 (+5%) realized +$21 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate63%12W / 7L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$6
sports 42% +$18
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -14.0% -22.2% 63% 37% -3.7%
≤30d 19 -14.0% -22.2% 63% 37% -3.7%
≤90d 19 -14.0% -22.2% 63% 37% -3.7%
all 19 -14.0% -22.2% 63% 37% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.2% 37% -3.7%
10% ← realistic here -29.6% 16% -12.9%
15% -36.4% 16% -21.3%
20% -42.7% 11% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses12 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage3d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Over 79¢ 80¢ $43 $44 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +50%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 +$1 +64%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 $0 -0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$1 +134%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$5 +16%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$4 -76%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $64 +$5 +8%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $93 +$6 +6%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $18 +$3 +15%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $13 +$2 +16%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -80%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $82 +$12 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $43 5m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3 19m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $3 19m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $2 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $40 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $40 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $35 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 12¢ $1 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 12¢ $1 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $34 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $35 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $4 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $34 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $33 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 91¢ $31 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 90¢ $31 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $28 23h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 42h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $11 42h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 44h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $6 45h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 45h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 46h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.84 · official $43.84 (match) · 64 history records