Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:55:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0ff2…f1a7 sports 98 markets active 3h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%14W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$2
other 23% −$4
politics 19% −$2
crypto 13% −$1
culture 6% −$1
world 4% $0
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 98 -0.2% -9.7% 14% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses14 / 84
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)98 / 98
History coverage158d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 98 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 22 $52 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 25 $55 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 12 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 12 $117 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? Feb 12 $92 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 12 $285 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 12 $170 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 12 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 12 $277 +$1 +0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 12 $286 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 12 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 12 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 12 $117 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 12 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 12 $97 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 12 $261 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 12 $94 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 12 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 12 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 12 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 12 $94 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 12 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Feb 12 $95 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 06 $97 $0 -0%
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 06 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 06 $26 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 06 $233 −$1 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 06 $2 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 06 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 06 $8 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 06 $97 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 06 $100 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 06 $109 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 06 $38 −$1 -3%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 06 $31 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 04 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 04 $8 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 04 $82 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 04 $109 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 03 $45 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - February 3, 12AM ET Feb 03 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 12AM ET Feb 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in February? Feb 03 $5 $0 -1%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 03 $52 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 03 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 95¢ $52 2h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 95¢ $52 8h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $58 12d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $58 12d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $49 20d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $49 20d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $55 27d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $55 27d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $61 35d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $61 37d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $90 130d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $90 130d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $78 130d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 93¢ $78 130d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? SELL No 97¢ $7 130d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? SELL No 97¢ $10 130d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? SELL No 97¢ $75 130d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? BUY No 97¢ $92 130d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $88 130d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $88 130d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $95 130d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $96 130d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? SELL No 96¢ $91 130d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? BUY No 96¢ $91 130d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $94 130d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $94 130d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $97 130d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $97 130d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $91 130d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 96¢ $91 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 403 history records