Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0ff2…5b93 sports 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 495d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$338 (-21%) realized −$269 · open −$69
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%11W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$101
14 days−$84
30 days−$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$87
other 49% −$331
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -45.5% -50.7% 20% 20% -67.9%
≤30d 12 -33.3% -39.7% 33% 33% -42.5%
≤90d 28 -17.8% -25.6% 39% 39% -25.1%
all 30 -23.3% -30.6% 37% 37% -34.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.6% 37% -34.5%
10% -37.2% 33% -40.7%
15% -43.3% 33% -46.5%
20% -48.8% 33% -51.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$41 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

495d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized−$269
Unrealized−$69
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses11 / 19
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage495d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? Yes 41¢ 30¢ $229 $163 −$66 (-29%)
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $63 $60 −$3 (-5%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 38¢ 38¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$35 +172%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 +$35 +69%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 09 $41 +$32 +79%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $45 −$16 -36%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5 May 26 $56 +$44 +79%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $47 −$46 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 23 $79 −$78 -99%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 May 22 $70 +$60 +86%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5 May 21 $54 +$46 +86%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 25.5 May 18 $55 +$45 +83%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? May 17 $31 +$6 +20%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 17.5 May 08 $60 −$60 -99%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 24.5 May 08 $63 +$57 +90%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $41 −$40 -98%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 25.5 May 03 $88 −$86 -99%
Deni Avdija: Points O/U 23.5 May 03 $30 +$27 +90%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 Apr 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Yi Wei win on 2026-04-07 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Andrey Esipenko win on 2026-04-07 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 07 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Rameshbabu Vaishali win on 2026-04-04 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Wom Apr 05 $13 +$45 +348%
Will Matthias Bluebaum win on 2026-04-04 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 04 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Wei Yi win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Mar 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-11? Feb 11 $59 −$59 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 38¢ $43 1h
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 25¢ $38 2h
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 24¢ $13 2h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 25h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 26h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 28h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY Yes 37¢ $9 28h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 29h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY Yes 37¢ $18 29h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $14 39h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $4 39h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3 39h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $15 39h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY Yes 34¢ $27 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 3d
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 3d
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 4d
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY Yes 46¢ $41 4d
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 4d
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $20 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $20 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 81¢ $86 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $51 8d
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 BUY Yes 50¢ $51 10d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 55¢ $41 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta SELL Rafael Jodar 100¢ $100 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta BUY Pablo Carreno Busta 16¢ $16 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.74 · official $264.74 (match) · 64 history records