Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0fe9…ea01 weather 680 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (152 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$997 (-57%) realized −$994 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate5%26W / 499L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day151.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days−$158
14 days−$679
30 days−$677
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 75% −$534
other 13% +$5
sports 8% −$136
crypto 4% −$15
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (152 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-49.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 310 -21.1% -28.6% 6% 6% -30.1%
≤30d 525 -44.6% -49.9% 5% 4% -53.0%
≤90d 525 -44.6% -49.9% 5% 4% -53.0%
all 525 -44.6% -49.9% 5% 4% -53.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover151.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -49.9% 4% -53.0%
10% ← realistic here -54.7% 4% -57.5%
15% -59.1% 4% -61.6%
20% -63.1% 4% -65.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -82% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$2 · ×8.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$994
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses26 / 499
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)525 / 680
History coverage16d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day151.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 525 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in June 2026? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-69%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 17? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $234 +$6 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$17 +1567%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 +$36 +3233%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$7 +857%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$11 +1011%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$11 +963%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$10 +857%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 +$11 +963%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$21 +1900%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$24 +1150%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$11 +963%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$17 +1567%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$11 +963%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$19 +963%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 11 $2 +$18 +857%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 102-103°F on June 1 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 98°F or higher on June 12? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $136 −$136 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or below on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 37°C on June 12? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 100-101°F on June 1 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on June Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $234 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 102-103°F on June 1 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 11? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 98°F or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 98°F or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 11? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 11? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 98°F or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 87¢ $44 6d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 93¢ $33 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 93¢ $13 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.69 · official $0.69 (match) · 2387 history records