Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:58:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0F 0x0fe6…e9f0 crypto 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3 (+21%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day20.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +13.1% +2.4% 71% 64% +3.0%
≤30d 14 +13.1% +2.4% 71% 64% +3.0%
≤90d 14 +13.1% +2.4% 71% 64% +3.0%
all 14 +13.1% +2.4% 71% 64% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.4% 64% +3.0%
10% ← realistic here -7.4% 50% -6.9%
15% -16.4% 29% -15.9%
20% -24.6% 21% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day20.2
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records