Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:13:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0fe5…91aa weather 709 markets active 1h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$191 (+3%) realized +$194 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate59%405W / 286L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days−$28
14 days+$75
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 70% +$95
other 11% −$64
sports 5% +$61
world 5% +$104
finance 4% +$70
crypto 3% −$92
politics 2% −$19
tech 0% +$6
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -38.9% -44.7% 50% 15% -10.8%
≤30d 214 -13.3% -21.6% 72% 20% -8.7%
≤90d 553 -26.8% -33.8% 52% 20% -18.7%
all 691 -0.6% -10.1% 59% 30% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 30% -7.5%
10% -18.7% 21% -16.4%
15% -26.5% 17% -24.4%
20% -33.7% 14% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized+$194
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses405 / 286
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions18
Markets (closed)691 / 709
History coverage230d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 691 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? No 94¢ 92¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? No 90¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? No 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mohammed bin Salman by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 30¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 18¢ 16¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? No 54¢ 56¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? No 81¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? No 81¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026? No 72¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 21¢ 15¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-29%)
Will Trump nationalize elections? No 83¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Norah O'Donnell by June 30, 2026? No 74¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? No 88¢ 41¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $3 +$2 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $121 +$21 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 17? Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $130 −$8 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $102 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $3 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $1 −$1 -82%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $54 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $70 +$2 +3%
Will Dave & Buster's (PLAY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 15 $7 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $110 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $117 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $105 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 13 $100 +$3 +3%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 250 ( Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 8? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 23? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Another confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $1 35m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 58¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 49¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 30¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $4 12h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $142 12h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 84¢ $121 15h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $122 15h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $4 16h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $120 17h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 17? SELL No 94¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 91¢ $122 18h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? SELL No 5¢ $0 18h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 41¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY No 84¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $30 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.33 · official $141.33 (match) · 1680 history records