Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:16:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0fe4…adc7 other 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$91 (-33%) realized −$80 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$18
world 40% −$46
sports 12% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-58.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -64.0% -67.4% 17% 17% -70.5%
≤30d 7 -54.1% -58.5% 29% 14% -56.4%
≤90d 7 -54.1% -58.5% 29% 14% -56.4%
all 7 -54.1% -58.5% 29% 14% -56.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.5% 14% -56.4%
10% -62.4% 14% -60.6%
15% -66.1% 14% -64.4%
20% -69.4% 14% -67.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$19 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$80
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage9d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 30¢ 22¢ $32 $23 −$9 (-28%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$6 -63%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $34 −$31 -91%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 +$11 +54%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 13 $35 −$34 -96%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -50%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $33 +$2 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 1m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $63 26m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $29 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $32 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 2¢ $3 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 22¢ $34 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 40¢ $31 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $35 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $35 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $33 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.93 · official $40.93 (match) · 20 history records