Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:44:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0fe4…01b7 crypto 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 12d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (272 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$444,544 (+59%) realized +$434,701 · open +$9,843
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate18%62W / 278L
Whale WR21%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17,540per market
Trades / day271.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$411,627now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$94,096
other 9% +$5,946
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (272 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 330 +17.2% +6.1% 17% 16% -30.4%
≤30d 340 +25.2% +13.2% 18% 17% -20.1%
≤90d 340 +25.2% +13.2% 18% 17% -20.1%
all 340 +25.2% +13.2% 18% 17% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover271.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.2% 17% -20.1%
10% +2.4% 16% -27.8%
15% ← realistic here -7.5% 15% -34.8%
20% -16.6% 14% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 21% (≥$1,388) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -62% → late +112% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
74.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,823 vs −$1,172 · ×3.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$411,627
Realized+$434,701
Unrealized+$9,843
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses62 / 278
Whale WR (big bets)21%
Open positions25
Markets (closed)340 / 43
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$17,540
Trades / day271.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 340 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 91¢ 99¢ $62,593 $67,804 +$5,211 (+8%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 89¢ 100¢ $50,101 $56,226 +$6,125 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 90¢ 99¢ $37,937 $42,091 +$4,154 (+11%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? No 95¢ 99¢ $37,833 $39,314 +$1,480 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? Down 87¢ 86¢ $36,005 $35,377 −$628 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 91¢ 94¢ $28,540 $29,750 +$1,209 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 95¢ 100¢ $24,140 $25,380 +$1,240 (+5%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 28? Down 92¢ 90¢ $23,766 $23,271 −$495 (-2%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 90¢ 97¢ $17,437 $18,878 +$1,440 (+8%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 93¢ 100¢ $12,450 $13,264 +$814 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? No 88¢ 95¢ $9,912 $10,684 +$772 (+8%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 95¢ 100¢ $9,588 $10,085 +$497 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 91¢ 99¢ $6,705 $7,277 +$572 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? No 61¢ 62¢ $5,128 $5,216 +$87 (+2%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? No 91¢ 100¢ $4,376 $4,799 +$423 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 76¢ 72¢ $3,734 $3,499 −$235 (-6%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $3,339 $3,404 +$65 (+2%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $3,159 $3,385 +$227 (+7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? Up 22¢ 14¢ $5,054 $3,303 −$1,752 (-35%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 85¢ 68¢ $2,860 $2,294 −$566 (-20%)
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? Yes 31¢ 38¢ $1,301 $1,558 +$257 (+20%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $1,263 $1,367 +$105 (+8%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 28? Up 18¢ 10¢ $2,319 $1,232 −$1,087 (-47%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $906 $727 −$178 (-20%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $678 $698 +$20 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 317 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 29? Jun 28 $351 −$958 -273%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 12? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 28? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 24? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 11? Jun 28 $1,924 −$2,188 -114%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 24? Jun 28 $1,181 −$1,018 -86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 13? Jun 28 $284 +$671 +236%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? Jun 28 $1,681 +$3,025 +180%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 15? Jun 28 $1,276 −$1,275 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 9? Jun 28 $577 +$1,057 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 24? Jun 28 $2,347 −$135 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 21? Jun 28 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 14? Jun 28 $274 −$274 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 8? Jun 28 $327 +$515 +157%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 17? Jun 28 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 28 $2,675 −$2,218 -83%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Jun 28 $3,355 −$6,020 -179%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 1? Jun 28 $855 +$4,198 +491%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 17? Jun 28 $728 −$829 -114%
Ethereum Up or Down on February 25? Jun 28 $1,672 +$304 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 28 $4,814 −$3,141 -65%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 8? Jun 28 $1,617 −$2,429 -150%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 8? Jun 28 $395 −$395 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on February 16? Jun 28 $453 −$453 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 15? Jun 28 $884 −$884 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 27? Jun 28 $1,159 −$97 -8%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 13? Jun 28 $2,414 −$2,414 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 25? Jun 28 $1,388 −$1,388 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 18? Jun 28 $846 −$846 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 1? Jun 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 4? Jun 28 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 15? Jun 28 $82 −$82 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 10? Jun 28 $416 −$416 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 11? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 19? Jun 28 $438 −$438 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 18? Jun 28 $1,937 −$1,983 -102%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on February 26? Jun 28 $806 −$405 -50%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April? Jun 28 $7,661 −$5,494 -72%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Jun 28 $2,717 +$788 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 22? Jun 28 $66 −$66 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on December 28? Jun 28 $549 −$635 -116%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on February 27? Jun 28 $1,205 −$1,205 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 27? Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 9? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 4? Jun 28 $206 −$206 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on February 21? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 28? Jun 28 $5,628 −$4,889 -87%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? Jun 28 $1,888 −$1,811 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 25? Jun 28 $49 +$741 +1527%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 12? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 0m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 0m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 0m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $132 2m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $123 9m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $204 12m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 14¢ $15 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 21¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 21¢ $1 13m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 15¢ $52 13m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 15¢ $52 13m
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? BUY Yes 37¢ $77 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 22¢ $116 13m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 12¢ $271 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 19¢ $201 14m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 14m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 11¢ $7 15m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 16¢ $3 15m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 15m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 9¢ $10 15m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 9¢ $0 15m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 9¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 14¢ $2 16m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 16m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 17m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $411,626.69 · official $411,558.80 (match) · 3500 history records