trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 71% | 43% | -8.1% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +0.5% | -9.1% | 75% | 38% | -7.8% |
| ≤90d | 17 | -2.7% | -12.0% | 65% | 24% | -10.0% |
| all | 28 | -11.9% | -20.3% | 64% | 14% | -40.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -20.3% | 14% | -40.8% |
| 10% | -27.9% | 11% | -46.5% |
| 15% | -34.9% | 4% | -51.6% |
| 20% | -41.2% | 4% | -56.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22? | No | 72¢ | 82¢ | $50 | $57 | +$7 (+15%) |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 22? | No | 84¢ | 83¢ | $50 | $49 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 22? | Jun 22 | $50 | +$4 | +8% |
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 22? | Jun 22 | $50 | −$43 | -86% |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 22? | Jun 22 | $51 | +$13 | +25% |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 22? | Jun 22 | $50 | +$5 | +10% |
| Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 22? | Jun 22 | $101 | +$18 | +18% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? | Jun 22 | $50 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? | Jun 17 | $40 | +$11 | +26% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 26? | May 26 | $40 | +$2 | +5% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 12? | May 12 | $32 | +$19 | +58% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 12? | May 12 | $40 | −$8 | -20% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 5? | May 11 | $37 | +$2 | +6% |
| Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 26? | Apr 26 | $26 | −$24 | -92% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or higher on April 5? | Apr 05 | $190 | +$12 | +6% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 5? | Apr 05 | $180 | +$11 | +6% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C or higher on April 4? | Apr 04 | $201 | −$27 | -14% |
| Raptors vs. Grizzlies | Apr 04 | $200 | $0 | -0% |
| Jazz vs. Rockets | Apr 04 | $200 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 23? | Mar 23 | $50 | −$36 | -71% |
| 76ers vs. Pistons | Mar 23 | $48 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 11? | Mar 13 | $45 | +$3 | +6% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 11? | Mar 11 | $10 | −$5 | -45% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 4? | Mar 05 | $46 | +$4 | +9% |
| Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 35°C or higher on Februar | Mar 04 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on February 1 | Feb 17 | $12 | +$1 | +7% |
| Wizards vs. Cavaliers | Feb 13 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Wizards vs. Pistons | Feb 06 | $892 | −$892 | -100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 1? | Feb 01 | $13 | −$13 | -100% |
| Infinex FDV above $600M one day after launch? | Feb 01 | $13 | $0 | +4% |