Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:57:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0F 0x0fe1…4f2c crypto 554 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,055 (+2%) realized +$1,055 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR74%break-even
Win rate74%410W / 144L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day20.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$730now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$282
7 days+$267
14 days+$600
30 days+$852
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$733
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +74%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +6.8% -3.4% 80% 80% -4.0%
≤30d 335 +2.5% -7.3% 74% 74% -7.0%
≤90d 551 +2.9% -6.9% 74% 74% -6.8%
all 554 +2.3% -7.4% 74% 74% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 74% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 74% -16.8%
15% -24.4% 34% -24.8%
20% -31.8% 10% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$79 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$730
Realized+$1,055
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses410 / 144
Open positions0
Markets (closed)554 / 554
History coverage91d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day20.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 554 Trades
no open positions (142 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $101 +$31 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $42 +$12 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$36 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $101 −$99 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $101 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $101 −$99 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $97 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 23 $49 +$17 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $101 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$29 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $99 +$30 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$29 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $97 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $101 +$30 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $98 +$35 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $101 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $102 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $102 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$31 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $101 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $85 +$46 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $101 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $97 +$38 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $101 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $101 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $101 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$26 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$29 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$40 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $98 +$51 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $101 −$99 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $101 −$99 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$29 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $101 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $97 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $49 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $15 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $81 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $76 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $19 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $101 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $98 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $97 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $16 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $17 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $7 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $54 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $100 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $101 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $729.73 · official $729.73 (match) · 2347 history records