Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:06:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0fe0…ac3b crypto 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-2%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate58%23W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day35.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$15
other 30% +$24
sports 8% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -4.7% -13.8% 58% 45% -11.6%
≤30d 40 -4.7% -13.8% 58% 45% -11.6%
≤90d 40 -4.7% -13.8% 58% 45% -11.6%
all 40 -4.7% -13.8% 58% 45% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 45% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 32% -20.0%
15% -29.6% 25% -27.8%
20% -36.5% 18% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses23 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage2d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day35.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $21 +$6 +30%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $11 +$6 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 26 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -93%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 25 $15 −$13 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $17 +$12 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 25 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7PM ET Jun 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 75¢ $21 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $11 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $4 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $3 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records