Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:51:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0F 0x0fde…8ab1 sports 688 markets active 1h ago coverage 272d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13,226 (-3%) realized −$11,945 · open −$1,281
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate68%466W / 219L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$717per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$1,251est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$2,497now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$121
7 days+$213
14 days+$213
30 days−$502
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$10,030
other 2% −$2,095
world 1% −$1,257
politics 0% −$820
tech 0% +$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +10.8% +0.2% 91% 64% -2.5%
≤30d 64 +1.8% -7.9% 84% 50% -13.4%
≤90d 348 -4.1% -13.3% 75% 55% -12.4%
all 685 -3.8% -12.9% 68% 54% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 54% -11.9%
10% -21.3% 23% -20.3%
15% -28.9% 9% -28.0%
20% -35.8% 3% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$761) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$344 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$2,497
Realized−$11,945
Unrealized−$1,281
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses466 / 219
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$1,251
Open positions3
Markets (closed)685 / 688
History coverage272d
Avg bet$717
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 685 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 58¢ 38¢ $2,947 $1,950 −$997 (-34%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 26¢ 14¢ $574 $296 −$278 (-48%)
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs 100 Thieves 83¢ 81¢ $257 $251 −$6 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 15 $238 +$20 +8%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $199 +$39 +20%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $180 +$19 +11%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $137 +$42 +31%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $124 +$13 +11%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $117 +$7 +6%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $106 +$11 +11%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $97 +$9 +10%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $86 +$10 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $71 +$15 +21%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $192 −$121 -63%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $195 −$3 -2%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $173 +$23 +13%
LoL: Galions vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $163 +$10 +6%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $142 +$20 +14%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $113 +$29 +26%
Rainbow Six Siege: G2 Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League S Jun 09 $86 +$27 +32%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs GOAL (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $75 +$11 +14%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 09 $72 +$4 +5%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Mast Jun 09 $67 +$5 +7%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 09 $51 +$16 +32%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 08 $45 +$6 +12%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $399 −$398 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $368 +$31 +8%
FC Imabari vs. FC Ryūkyū: O/U 4.5 May 31 $347 +$21 +6%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $317 +$30 +10%
LoL: HMBLE vs GMBLERS ESPORTS (BO5) - LIT Playoffs May 29 $300 +$12 +4%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $278 +$27 +10%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $103 +$31 +30%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $162 −$59 -37%
Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 May 28 $143 +$19 +13%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs BIG (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division P May 28 $199 −$55 -28%
Washington Mystics vs. Seattle Storm May 28 $183 +$15 +8%
CS Cienciano vs. CA Juventud: O/U 4.5 May 28 $171 +$12 +7%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $161 +$10 +6%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $141 +$20 +14%
Paris Basketball vs. Strasbourg May 26 $122 +$19 +16%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challe May 26 $106 +$15 +14%
Connecticut Sun vs. Golden State Valkyries May 26 $93 +$13 +14%
Sandefjord Fotball vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 3.5 May 25 $87 +$6 +7%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - Esports World C May 25 $73 +$14 +18%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CIS LAN Champ May 25 $58 +$15 +26%
Fagiano Okayama vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 4.5 May 24 $78 −$78 -100%
Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 May 23 $411 −$410 -100%
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 4.5 May 23 $376 +$36 +10%
Racing Club de Lens vs. OGC Nice: O/U 4.5 May 22 $324 +$51 +16%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers Le May 22 $287 +$38 +13%
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs devils.one (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Seaso May 21 $100 +$8 +8%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $90 +$10 +11%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q May 21 $351 −$260 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C BUY 100 Thieves 83¢ $258 51m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin SELL Team Resilience 100¢ $258 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 92¢ $238 3h
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY Alliance 83¢ $199 27h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $199 27h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 90¢ $180 28h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 76¢ $137 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 100¢ $138 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 90¢ $124 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 94¢ $117 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $965 2d
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY G2 NORD 90¢ $106 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Hurricanes 100¢ $106 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $214 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 91¢ $97 3d
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY Karmine Corp Blue 89¢ $86 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 100¢ $86 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 82¢ $71 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 30¢ $71 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 79¢ $192 4d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm SELL Los Angeles Sparks 72¢ $192 4d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm BUY Los Angeles Sparks 72¢ $195 4d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $196 4d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $173 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 25¢ $150 4d
LoL: Galions vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY Galions 94¢ $163 4d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C SELL G2 NORD 100¢ $163 4d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY G2 NORD 87¢ $142 5d
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky SELL Atlanta Dream 100¢ $142 5d
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky BUY Atlanta Dream 79¢ $113 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,497.33 · official $2,497.33 (match) · 1538 history records