Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:08:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0fdd…8266 politics 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 320d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate27%14W / 37L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% −$1
world 28% $0
other 20% $0
culture 7% +$1
crypto 5% $0
weather 4% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 +1.3% -8.4% 18% 9% -9.5%
≤90d 11 +1.3% -8.4% 18% 9% -9.5%
all 51 -1.3% -10.7% 27% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 2% -9.5%
10% -19.2% 2% -18.1%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

320d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses14 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage320d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $6 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $9 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $32 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $6 +$2 +25%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 11 $63 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $63 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 18 $3 $0 +10%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Aug 22 $0 $0 -71%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 17 $13 +$1 +9%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 17 $0 $0 -5%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 17 $43 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 17 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will Andrónico Rodríguez win the most votes in the first round of the Aug 17 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will PDC win the most seats in the next Bolivia Chamber of Deputies el Aug 16 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 16 $21 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Aug 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 14 $57 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 13 $69 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Aug 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 12 $17 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $123K on August 12 at 5PM ET Aug 12 $2 $0 -23%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in August? Aug 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 12 $74 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 82-83°F on August 9? Aug 11 $38 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $122K August 4–10? Aug 10 $7 $0 +1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75-76°F on Au Aug 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 08 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $31 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 5h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 5h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $9 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $9 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 52¢ $30 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 52¢ $2 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $32 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $11 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $17 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $29 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $14 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $19 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $15 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $18 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $14 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $18 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $32 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $6 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $3 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $5 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $3 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $4 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.46 · official $31.46 (match) · 177 history records