Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:38:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0F 0x0fdb…8417 crypto 709 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$2,619 (-11%) realized −$6,506 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate27%193W / 511L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days−$794
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$5,183
sports 11% −$1,258
other 0% −$84
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-44.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +8.9% -1.5% 50% 25% +13.9%
≤30d 68 -47.7% -52.7% 26% 19% -47.0%
≤90d 336 -47.4% -52.4% 26% 23% -43.0%
all 704 -38.1% -44.0% 27% 25% -42.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.0% 25% -42.7%
10% -49.3% 24% -48.2%
15% -54.2% 22% -53.2%
20% -58.7% 18% -57.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$21 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,506
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses193 / 511
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)704 / 709
History coverage133d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 704 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? No 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Massachusetts Minutemen vs. Akron Zips Massachusetts Minutemen 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 7, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $18 +$72 +388%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $41 −$10 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $41 −$10 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET Jun 13 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$7 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 20 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 20 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 20 $3 +$4 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 20 $4 +$5 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12AM ET May 20 $28 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7PM ET May 19 $79 −$74 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 19 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 19 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 19 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12PM ET May 19 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11AM ET May 19 $68 −$64 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10AM ET May 19 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 16 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 16 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 16 $99 −$95 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 16 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 16 $114 −$45 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 16 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 16 $44 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 16 $86 −$20 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 16 $58 −$6 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 16 $116 −$12 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 16 $88 −$24 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 16 $61 −$59 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 16 $48 −$21 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 16 $59 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 16 $21 −$10 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 16 $57 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 16 $31 −$20 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 16 $68 −$15 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 16 $165 −$12 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 16 $117 −$112 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 16 $39 −$7 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 16 $30 −$13 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 3¢ $2 36m
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 81¢ $12 45m
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 68¢ $10 52m
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 55¢ $11 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $37 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026- BUY 27¢ $22 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 AND Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND BUY 31¢ $30 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY 20¢ $18 5h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Netherland BUY 39¢ $40 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $16 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $16 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $31 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $41 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $31 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $11 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $30 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $3 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $18 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $29.06 · 2418 history records