Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:16:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0fd2…3d4f politics 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$1 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate37%14W / 24L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% $0
world 21% −$1
other 17% $0
crypto 11% $0
sports 7% $0
weather 5% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 8 -3.2% -12.4% 50% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 8 -3.2% -12.4% 50% 0% -9.8%
all 38 -0.7% -10.1% 37% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses14 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage318d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 64¢ 62¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 -24%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $5 $0 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $54 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $27 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $6 $0 -6%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $14 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 16 $2 $0 +5%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025? Aug 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 15 $27 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 14 $19 $0 -1%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will JD Vance say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" during his remarks to US troop Aug 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 93°F or higher on August 12? Aug 12 $41 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $155 August 4–10? Aug 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in August? Aug 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 10 $1 $0 -6%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 10 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2025? Aug 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 08 $45 $0 +0%
Pakistan strike on India by Friday? Aug 07 $21 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 07 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Aug 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 06 $48 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? Aug 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 05 $9 $0 -2%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 05 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $28 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $27 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $27 12h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $27 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $3 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $24 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $22 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $27 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $2 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $25 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $27 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 14d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 16d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 16d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 16d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $19 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $17 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.88 · official $27.09 (match) · 160 history records