Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:51:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0fd2…1522 other 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate40%47W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$6
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$13
other 35% +$2
sports 12% −$27
politics 6% +$5
tech 2% +$5
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.5% -10.8% 14% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 26 -4.2% -13.3% 27% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 37 -5.3% -14.4% 27% 3% -9.8%
all 118 -1.8% -11.1% 40% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 3% -9.7%
10% -19.6% 3% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses47 / 71
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)118 / 120
History coverage454d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 91¢ $133 $133 +$0 (+0%)
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $46 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $225 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $267 −$7 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $264 +$3 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $108 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $459 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 09 $61 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $137 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $402 −$1 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $310 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $696 −$5 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $134 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $228 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $345 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $3 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $145 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $145 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $145 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $131 −$6 -5%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $163 +$2 +1%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 26 $333 −$15 -5%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 25 $137 +$5 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 22 $135 −$1 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $127 −$13 -10%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $2,104 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $1,108 −$10 -1%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $1,005 +$1 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $81 +$20 +25%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $18 −$3 -19%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will Remco Evenepoel win the Tour de France 2025? Jul 23 $2 +$1 +38%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 22 $1 $0 +26%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 22 $19 $0 +1%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jul 22 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 22 $15 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 22 $18 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 22 $13 $0 +1%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Jul 20 $18 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 20 $13 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31? Jul 20 $8 $0 +2%
Will Levon Aronian win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tou Jul 19 $10 $0 -2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 19 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $133 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $146 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $146 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 12h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 12h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 31h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $46 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $46 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $19 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $46 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $65 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $39 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $91 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $132 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 86¢ $112 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 83¢ $107 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $17 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $112 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $79 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $48 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $108 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $108 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $13 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 18¢ $2 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 18¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.79 · official $132.86 (match) · 452 history records