Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:25:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0fce…63d5 sports 396 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,102 (-4%) realized −$2,026 · open −$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate29%132W / 323L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day48.8pace
Fees−$477est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$11,209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 66d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$4,638
other 28% −$10,185
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 189 -66.2% -69.4% 10% 8% -62.2%
≤30d 192 -62.6% -66.2% 11% 9% -63.2%
≤90d 455 -14.7% -22.8% 29% 27% -37.8%
all 455 -14.7% -22.8% 29% 27% -37.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.8% 27% -37.8%
10% ← realistic here -30.2% 26% -43.8%
15% -37.0% 24% -49.2%
20% -43.1% 22% -54.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +17% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$103 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$11,209
Realized−$2,026
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses132 / 323
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$477
Open positions109
Markets (closed)455 / 396
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$141
Trades / day48.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 109 History 455 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? No 86¢ 88¢ $2,416 $2,486 +$70 (+3%)
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Iraq 81¢ 94¢ $1,847 $2,155 +$308 (+17%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Under 90¢ 89¢ $1,841 $1,818 −$24 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Iraq 65¢ 84¢ $514 $669 +$154 (+30%)
Iraq leading at halftime? No 92¢ 100¢ $423 $460 +$37 (+9%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Under 85¢ 84¢ $454 $451 −$3 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 57¢ 58¢ $431 $442 +$11 (+3%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 96¢ 96¢ $235 $236 +$0 (+0%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Over 37¢ 70¢ $113 $215 +$102 (+91%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 76¢ 76¢ $153 $152 −$1 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Under 41¢ 42¢ $127 $129 +$2 (+1%)
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Panama 81¢ 81¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Under 63¢ 30¢ $202 $95 −$108 (-53%)
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? No 97¢ 95¢ $91 $90 −$1 (-1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? No 68¢ 100¢ $61 $90 +$29 (+47%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 48¢ $73 $74 +$1 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Under 68¢ 68¢ $72 $73 +$1 (+1%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 44¢ 48¢ $66 $71 +$5 (+8%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? No 96¢ 96¢ $71 $71 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? No 92¢ 92¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) Norway 98¢ 100¢ $67 $68 +$1 (+2%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? No 69¢ 68¢ $68 $67 −$0 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 60¢ $63 $65 +$2 (+3%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 44¢ 36¢ $73 $60 −$13 (-18%)
Argentina leading at halftime? No 50¢ 50¢ $58 $58 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 300 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Pacers Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Warriors (-10.5) Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Sharks vs. Ducks Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-04-11? Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 16 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austin FC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-10? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Madrid: Arantxa Rus vs Carol Young Suh Lee Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-04-10? Jun 16 $164 −$164 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Athletics vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tomas Machac Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Campinas: Guido Justo vs Victor Remondy Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Torino FC vs. Hellas Verona FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Madrid: Calvin Hemery vs Alex Martinez Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-11? Jun 16 $512 −$512 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Club Alianza Atlético vs. CA Tigre: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $124 −$124 -100%
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-04-10? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Sarasota: Darwin Blanch vs Federico Agustin Gomez Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs Jun 16 $117 −$117 -100%
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-04-11? Jun 16 $91 −$91 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CD Tolima vs. Club Universitario de Deportes end in a draw? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
SC Braga vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-04-11? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Canucks vs. Sharks Jun 16 $356 −$356 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-04-10? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
CSD Mixco vs. CD Marquense: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Madrid: Darja Semenistaja vs Lisa Pigato Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
SC Braga vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
76ers vs. Rockets Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-11? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Lightning vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 71¢ $1 5m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 71¢ $4 5m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 89¢ $3 6m
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 61¢ $3 10m
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $4 11m
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $2 11m
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Argentina 97¢ $3 12m
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Argentina 97¢ $3 12m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $5 14m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $7 14m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $7 14m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $5 14m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $13 14m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $15 14m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $18 14m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $17 14m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $18 14m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $18 14m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $3 14m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $4 14m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $3 17m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $1 17m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 69¢ $1 18m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 69¢ $4 19m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 69¢ $2 19m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $1 19m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 69¢ $10 25m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 19¢ $4 25m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 19¢ $1 25m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 69¢ $58 25m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,209.23 · official $11,087.38 · 3500 history records