Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:45:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0fcd…1559 world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate29%10W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% −$6
other 15% −$1
finance 5% $0
sports 4% $0
crypto 2% −$3
politics 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.8% -11.1% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 16 -3.1% -12.3% 19% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 19 -3.8% -12.9% 16% 5% -10.3%
all 35 -4.0% -13.2% 29% 6% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 6% -10.5%
10% -21.5% 3% -19.1%
15% -29.1% 3% -26.9%
20% -36.0% 3% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses10 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage474d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $54 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $7 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $21 −$2 -8%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $35 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $36 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 01 $40 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $74 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $36 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $17 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $36 −$2 -6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $3 +$2 +60%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $38 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $10 $0 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $19 −$4 -21%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 21 $1 $0 -4%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $9 $0 +6%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C May 07 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 07 $1 $0 -2%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 19 $9 $0 +3%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 28 $11 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Mar 28 $3 −$3 -85%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Mar 22 $2 $0 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21? Mar 19 $14 −$1 -6%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 18 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $15 $0 -0%
Did Kanye sell his twitter account? Mar 10 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 42m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $21 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $13 5h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $34 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $16 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $17 15h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $7 31h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $7 33h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 40h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $24 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $14 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $16 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $19 2d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $11 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $25 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $35 22d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $6 22d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $21 22d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $9 22d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $6 22d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $30 22d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $36 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.52 · official $0.04 (match) · 111 history records