Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:56:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0F 0x0fcc…ff26 world 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate60%25W / 17L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$1
14 days+$5
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$4
other 21% +$2
politics 5% +$2
crypto 4% −$2
weather 4% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 57% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 19 +0.6% -8.9% 53% 5% -9.0%
≤90d 19 +0.6% -8.9% 53% 5% -9.0%
all 42 +0.6% -9.0% 60% 5% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 5% -8.9%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses25 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage472d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $34 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $16 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $68 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $36 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $7 $0 -4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 -6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $41 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $24 +$5 +21%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $62 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $31 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $31 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9? May 10 $8 +$1 +11%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? May 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101000 and $103000 on May 9? May 09 $9 −$2 -28%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2–9? May 08 $8 $0 +1%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 160-179 times on Truth March 21-28? Mar 30 $17 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 50°F or below on March 24? Mar 24 $17 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 23 $17 $0 -1%
Will Trump post less than 80 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $17 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or higher on March 16? Mar 18 $17 $0 +1%
Will another team have the highest Constructor score at the Australian Mar 15 $17 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump sign Bitcoin reserve executive order Friday? Mar 11 $16 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $35 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $34 6h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $14 32h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $35 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $37 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $16 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $16 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $14 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $37 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $41 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $41 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $37 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $37 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $37 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $7 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $3 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $3 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $41 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 119 history records