Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:17:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0fc8…5ef8 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+2%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$1
crypto 10% −$1
weather 8% $0
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +27.6% +15.4% 43% 29% -8.6%
≤30d 12 +5.8% -4.3% 25% 17% -10.5%
≤90d 12 +5.8% -4.3% 25% 17% -10.5%
all 12 +5.8% -4.3% 25% 17% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 17% -10.5%
10% -13.5% 17% -19.0%
15% -21.8% 8% -26.8%
20% -29.5% 8% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage14d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 15 $44 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1 $0 -4%
GMGN FDV above $4B one day after launch Jun 02 $1 $0 -3%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 02 $1 $0 -10%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 01 $1 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 38m
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 39m
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $1 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $1 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $1 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $1 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $1 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $1 2h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 7h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 8h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 45h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 45h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 45h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 45h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $1 2d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records