Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:31:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0fc7…8b45 other 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$36 (+1%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate40%33W / 50L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$7
14 days+$25
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% +$27
other 17% +$3
politics 2% $0
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% +$4
tech 0% $0
weather 0% +$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 23 -0.7% -10.1% 30% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 26 +9.5% -0.9% 35% 8% -9.1%
all 83 +1.3% -8.3% 40% 7% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 7% -9.0%
10% -17.1% 7% -17.7%
15% -25.1% 6% -25.7%
20% -32.4% 6% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses33 / 50
Open positions2
Markets (closed)83 / 85
History coverage486d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 62¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+46%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $317 +$5 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $126 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $126 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $257 +$3 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $6 $0 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $115 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $122 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $111 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $235 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $112 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $112 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1,661 +$20 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $185 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $410 −$2 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $215 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $56 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $112 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $215 −$42 -19%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $148 +$2 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $160 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $144 +$2 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $462 −$1 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $162 +$38 +24%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 13 $244 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $121 +$2 +1%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 01 $15 $0 +1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2025 French Open? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? May 17 $5 −$4 -83%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 16 $16 $0 -0%
Will Albania qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2025? May 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Spain win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? May 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 10 $3 +$1 +56%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? May 10 $19 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 09 $18 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 09 $38 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 09 $19 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $18 $0 +0%
US military action on Yemen by Friday? May 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 07 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 07 $14 $0 +3%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 07 $15 $0 -2%
Will Zellnor Myrie win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Ci May 06 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $94 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $32 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $127 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $126 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $126 44h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $10 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $116 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $126 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $124 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $127 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $35 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $38 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 53¢ $94 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 52¢ $38 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 52¢ $46 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 52¢ $8 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $113 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $113 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $55 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $7 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $60 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $122 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $122 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.88 · official $0.00 (match) · 327 history records