Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:37:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0fc6…843d crypto 1566 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$405 (-1%) realized −$270 · open −$349
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate91%1408W / 146L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day141.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$524
14 days−$270
30 days−$270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$233
weather 10% −$37
other 1% −$350
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 463 -5.7% -14.7% 89% 15% -16.7%
≤30d 1554 -0.8% -10.3% 91% 26% -10.2%
≤90d 1554 -0.8% -10.3% 91% 26% -10.2%
all 1554 -0.8% -10.3% 91% 26% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover141.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 26% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 8% -18.8%
15% -26.7% 2% -26.6%
20% -33.9% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$24 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$1,130
Realized−$270
Unrealized−$349
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1408 / 146
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1554 / 1566
History coverage13d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day141.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 1554 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $500 $850 +$350 (+70%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $500 $150 −$350 (-70%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C or below on June 3? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 14? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 14? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Yes 77¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Yes 90¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Yes 79¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C or below on June 3? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 8m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 87¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,129.58 · official $1,129.58 (match) · 3500 history records