Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:30:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0F 0x0fc5…e3b9 sports 304 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,034 (-1%) realized −$3,031 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate61%183W / 117L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,229per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$2,349est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 155d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$5,278
tech 1% +$384
other 1% −$65
politics 0% −$25
world 0% −$69
crypto 0% −$213
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -14.1% -22.3% 57% 29% -15.2%
≤30d 81 -3.9% -13.0% 64% 35% -9.4%
≤90d 219 -5.3% -14.4% 61% 40% -11.1%
all 300 -5.0% -14.0% 61% 42% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 42% -10.8%
10% -22.3% 20% -19.3%
15% -29.8% 9% -27.1%
20% -36.7% 3% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$1,506) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$200 vs −$360 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized−$3,031
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses183 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$2,349
Open positions4
Markets (closed)300 / 304
History coverage155d
Avg bet$1,229
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 300 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $601 +$30 +5%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $5,783 +$559 +10%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1,012 −$198 -20%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $1,504 +$144 +10%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $1,682 −$450 -27%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $1,509 +$108 +7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $3,436 −$1,439 -42%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $505 +$170 +34%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $1,405 +$184 +13%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1,503 −$674 -45%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $711 +$405 +57%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $202 −$202 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 11 $301 +$12 +4%
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 10 $200 +$2 +1%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 10 $201 +$28 +14%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $201 +$31 +15%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $301 +$22 +7%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 10 $201 −$70 -35%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs GOAL (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $201 +$20 +10%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 09 $501 +$31 +6%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia Jun 09 $301 +$20 +7%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $1,209 +$292 +24%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $303 −$89 -29%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $1,212 +$246 +20%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $101 −$77 -76%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $1,511 +$463 +31%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $1,309 +$343 +26%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $9,084 +$1,089 +12%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $2,021 −$569 -28%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $6,012 +$417 +7%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $152 −$63 -42%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 01 $503 +$75 +15%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $2,714 −$226 -8%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 01 $2,533 +$68 +3%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $1,203 +$101 +8%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $1,111 +$283 +26%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $304 −$14 -4%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 30 $2,804 −$66 -2%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $3,308 −$1,021 -31%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $1,204 +$144 +12%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $2,506 +$224 +9%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $2,108 +$168 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $2,508 +$299 +12%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $3,042 +$257 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 29 $10 +$10 +95%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $1,506 +$217 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 25h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas BUY KT Rolster Challengers 95¢ $601 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $6,342 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ $4,280 3d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 4 Winner BUY Solary 61¢ $1,012 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 79¢ $1,214 3d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs SELL Galions 87¢ $1,617 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $1,682 4d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY KT Rolster Challengers 93¢ $1,503 4d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 91¢ $1,504 4d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Galions 81¢ $1,509 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 42¢ $1,310 4d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 92¢ $675 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 63¢ $2,022 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 34¢ $686 4d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 68¢ $505 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 68¢ $1,413 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 52¢ $829 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Hanwha Life Esports 73¢ $764 6d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas SELL KT Rolster Challengers 97¢ $313 7d
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G BUY Weibo Gaming Youth Team 70¢ $202 7d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas BUY KT Rolster Challengers 93¢ $301 7d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 49¢ $508 7d
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D SELL Solary 97¢ $202 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.59 · official $196.59 (match) · 861 history records