Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:26:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0fc2…e532 crypto 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (158 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$39 (-13%) realized +$21 · open −$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%25W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day158.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$69
weather 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (158 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -6.4% -15.3% 37% 35% -13.9%
≤30d 68 -6.4% -15.3% 37% 35% -13.9%
≤90d 68 -6.4% -15.3% 37% 35% -13.9%
all 68 -6.4% -15.3% 37% 35% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover158.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 35% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 35% -22.2%
15% -30.8% 31% -29.7%
20% -37.6% 29% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses25 / 43
Open positions16
Markets (closed)68 / 84
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day158.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on June 17? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-96%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$12 +278%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$15 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$9 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$8 +256%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$15 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$15 +487%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.06 · official $4.38 (match) · 192 history records