Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:42:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0F 0x0fc0…a921 sports 87 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$143 (+2%) realized +$216 · open −$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%33W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$132
7 days+$76
14 days−$397
30 days+$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$443
other 16% −$381
politics 12% −$5
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -15.2% -23.3% 41% 39% -6.5%
≤30d 81 +6.5% -3.7% 41% 38% -9.8%
≤90d 81 +6.5% -3.7% 41% 38% -9.8%
all 81 +6.5% -3.7% 41% 38% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 38% -9.8%
10% -12.9% 37% -18.5%
15% -21.3% 30% -26.3%
20% -29.0% 27% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$41 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized+$216
Unrealized−$73
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses33 / 48
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions5
Markets (closed)81 / 87
History coverage63d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 53¢ 38¢ $200 $145 −$55 (-28%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $39 $37 −$2 (-4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $40 +$24 +59%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $47 +$33 +70%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -62%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $91 +$49 +54%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 +$30 +73%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $51 +$53 +105%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $101 +$45 +45%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $88 +$181 +206%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $34 +$54 +158%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +83%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $15 −$1 -5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $552 −$550 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $132 +$45 +34%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $231 +$249 +108%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $305 +$20 +7%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $61 +$97 +159%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +128%
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $58 +$15 +26%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $35 −$35 -99%
Mexico to win the second half? Jun 11 $10 +$10 +97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $19 +$20 +107%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 11 $130 −$61 -47%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $222 +$58 +26%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $61 −$59 -98%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $156 +$44 +28%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 06 $75 −$6 -8%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 10m
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $10 58m
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $64 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $40 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $20 4h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $140 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 58¢ $47 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $26 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $65 7h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 7h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $40 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $70 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $41 10h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 10h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 100¢ $104 10h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 48¢ $51 12h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 16¢ $5 14h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 99¢ $41 14h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Vit Kopriva 0¢ $1 14h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 87¢ $106 14h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 61¢ $101 15h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 32¢ $88 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $34 28h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 15¢ $15 36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $552 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.81 · official $205.81 (match) · 210 history records