Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:44:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0fbf…c4ae other 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$258 (-19%) realized −$258 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate15%10W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$134
14 days−$134
30 days−$252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$119
sports 29% −$100
world 3% −$30
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -17.2% -25.1% 14% 12% -20.2%
≤30d 68 -25.8% -32.9% 15% 12% -27.1%
≤90d 68 -25.8% -32.9% 15% 12% -27.1%
all 68 -25.8% -32.9% 15% 12% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.9% 12% -27.1%
10% -39.3% 10% -34.1%
15% -45.2% 10% -40.4%
20% -50.5% 9% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$13 · ×3.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$258
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses10 / 58
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 74
History coverage27d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions (47 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $7 +$99 +1374%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $71 −$43 -60%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 United States? Jun 26 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $76 −$5 -6%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $132 −$56 -42%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $9 −$8 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $44 +$58 +132%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $33 −$26 -79%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $26 +$72 +281%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $76 −$75 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $14 −$8 -55%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $13 −$8 -57%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $6 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $4 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $3 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +22%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $20 −$2 -10%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $22 −$22 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $15 −$5 -32%
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -79%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $10 +$71 +692%
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 0 Japan? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 21 $3 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 21 $4 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $7 +$51 +712%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $12 −$6 -51%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $98 +$126 +128%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$1 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 47m
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? SELL Yes 85¢ $7 48m
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 United States? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 55m
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? SELL Yes 61¢ $20 56m
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 28¢ $71 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $71 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $76 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL No 36¢ $76 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 61¢ $100 2h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 60¢ $12 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) AND Will U BUY 5¢ $5 10h
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Hal BUY 7¢ $7 10h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 12h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 58¢ $20 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY 1¢ $3 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 1¢ $2 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $3 17h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 AND T BUY 25¢ $18 17h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY 1¢ $5 17h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 AND T BUY 24¢ $19 17h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 25h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 26h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 26h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 26h
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 26h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 26h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 26h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 49¢ $76 4d
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 137 history records