Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:09:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0F 0x0fb4…d31c crypto 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$8 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%7W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$440per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$4,129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$1
crypto 34% −$2
world 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
all 7 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 0% -9.0%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$4,129
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses7 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage158d
Avg bet$440
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Reya FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,981 $2,980 −$1 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $715 $712 −$2 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $437 $437 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $79 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $104 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 26 $104 $0 +0%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Apr 24 $102 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 24 $101 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Apr 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 22 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $83 1h
Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $715 1h
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $275 1h
Reya FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $2,982 1h
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $79 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $79 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $79 13d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY 90¢ $20 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $104 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $104 59d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $104 60d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $104 61d
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $104 61d
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $102 61d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $101 62d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $101 66d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $101 73d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $100 151d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $62 154d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $21 154d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $17 154d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $100 157d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,129.02 · official $4,129.02 (match) · 118 history records