Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:25:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0F
0x0fb0…7cb3
other · 103 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$16 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$16 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$145
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses37 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)101 / 103
History coverage459d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 2 History 101 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$17
14 days−$24
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $145 $144 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 96¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $157 −$14 -9%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 07 $4 $0 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $213 −$2 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $505 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $143 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $332 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $547 −$7 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $1 $0 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $168 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $175 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 28 $118 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $158 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $16 −$1 -9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $23 +$11 +51%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $989 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $155 −$1 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $85 −$3 -4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 12 $45 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $974 −$1 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $8 −$2 -20%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $986 +$1 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $149 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $226 +$17 +7%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $31 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $960 +$11 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $233 +$3 +1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 01 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jan 31 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $1 −$1 -84%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 22 $17 $0 -2%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 22 $28 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 25 $12 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Sep 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 18 $21 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Sep 18 $5 $0 -3%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 26 $11 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 26 $4 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Aug 20 $5 $0 -3%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 20 $16 $0 +2%
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo in August? Aug 20 $2 $0 +4%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 19 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 58% −$31
other 19% +$13
sports 13% +$1
politics 5% +$2
economics 3% +$17
crypto 1% +$3
tech 0% $0
finance 0% +$11
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $145 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $6 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $137 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $157 9h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $157 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $157 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $157 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $158 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $143 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $143 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $174 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $174 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $174 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $173 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $173 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $173 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $13 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 13d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 13d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $40 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.7% -11.9% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 18 +2.1% -7.6% 11% 11% -10.0%
≤90d 30 +0.9% -8.7% 23% 7% -9.4%
all 101 +0.7% -8.9% 37% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 5% -9.3%
10% -17.6% 3% -18.0%
15% -25.6% 3% -25.9%
20% -32.9% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.79 · official $144.43 (match) · 369 history records