Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:10:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0F 0x0faf…fd5e crypto 1155 markets active 0h ago coverage 101d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 101d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,222 (-9%) realized −$1,171 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%467W / 683L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day27.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$211
7 days−$160
14 days−$309
30 days−$1,938
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$1,512
sports 2% −$177
other 1% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -10.7% -19.2% 45% 41% -26.7%
≤30d 515 -45.7% -50.9% 26% 25% -46.0%
≤90d 964 -28.8% -35.6% 37% 35% -35.4%
all 1150 -13.0% -21.3% 41% 38% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.3% 38% -21.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.8% 35% -29.1%
15% -35.7% 31% -36.0%
20% -42.0% 25% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$1,171
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses467 / 683
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1150 / 1155
History coverage101d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day27.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Up 13¢ 10¢ $26 $21 −$5 (-20%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 22¢ $50 $20 −$30 (-61%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Over 34¢ 8¢ $20 $4 −$16 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 154 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$3 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$13 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$52 +331%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$13 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$13 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$7 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$16 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$6 -41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$7 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$7 +102%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$4 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$2 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $63 −$25 -39%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $66 −$65 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $91 −$90 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$13 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 +$7 +102%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$3 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +123%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$8 +130%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$7 +109%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +101%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 +$2 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$3 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$12 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$4 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$6 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $6 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $16 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $16 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $12 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $9 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $20 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $51 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $23 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $16 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $12 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $17 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.12 · official $50.12 (match) · 3500 history records