Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:10:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0faf…a7c1 other 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate37%38W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$26
politics 29% +$10
other 12% −$1
sports 4% −$3
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.0% -9.5% 29% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 28 -3.2% -12.5% 29% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 36 -2.7% -12.0% 25% 3% -10.4%
all 103 +0.4% -9.2% 37% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 5% -9.9%
10% -17.9% 3% -18.5%
15% -25.8% 2% -26.4%
20% -33.1% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses38 / 65
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)103 / 104
History coverage470d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 83¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $71 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $74 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $71 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $76 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $210 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $114 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $85 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $68 +$3 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $11 −$6 -54%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $91 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $86 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $72 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $79 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 31 $2 $0 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $135 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $75 −$3 -4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $75 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $118 −$11 -9%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $94 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $42 −$4 -9%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $98 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $77 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $5 $0 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $67 −$10 -14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $29 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 18 $95 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 18 $9 −$1 -9%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $12 +$1 +11%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $17 −$3 -17%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $70 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $164 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 17 $649 −$9 -1%
Did the FBI destroy Epstein files? Aug 10 $2 −$1 -40%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 15 $8 $0 -4%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 15 $3 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? Jul 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jul 15 $23 $0 +1%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 14 $4 $0 +2%
Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 12 $17 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Jul 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 12 $37 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $71 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $24 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $47 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 29h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $13 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $13 46h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $7 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $64 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $71 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 85¢ $76 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 85¢ $30 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 85¢ $25 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 85¢ $22 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $39 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $32 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $71 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $67 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $4 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $71 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $52 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $19 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $71 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $40 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $42 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $77 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $77 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 42¢ $33 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $14 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.30 · official $0.00 (match) · 374 history records