Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:56:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0F 0x0fac…b89a sports 151 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,678 (-4%) realized −$2,271 · open −$407
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%74W / 72L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$483per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$1,058est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$194now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$1,951
14 days−$3,642
30 days+$1,203
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$2,445
other 7% −$1,428
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -5.0% -14.1% 42% 42% -23.1%
≤30d 100 +14.5% +3.6% 55% 55% -7.2%
≤90d 146 +6.2% -3.9% 51% 51% -13.7%
all 146 +6.2% -3.9% 51% 51% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 51% -13.7%
10% -13.1% 51% -22.0%
15% -21.5% 49% -29.5%
20% -29.2% 43% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$429 vs −$489 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$194
Realized−$2,271
Unrealized−$407
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses74 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1,058
Open positions5
Markets (closed)146 / 151
History coverage40d
Avg bet$483
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner GLYPH 45¢ 44¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner GLYPH 44¢ 43¢ $98 $96 −$2 (-2%)
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Carstensz 20¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Carstensz 70¢ 0¢ $203 $0 −$203 (-100%)
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner Carstensz 42¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 20 $288 +$120 +42%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $207 +$82 +40%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $198 −$195 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $809 −$800 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $941 +$143 +15%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $204 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $612 −$600 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $620 +$829 +134%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $254 −$250 -98%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $363 −$355 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,568 −$2,213 -86%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $1,414 +$703 +50%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,314 +$686 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,060 +$507 +48%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $306 +$728 +238%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $267 +$94 +35%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $103 −$54 -53%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $174 +$888 +510%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $939 −$925 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2,416 −$2,385 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $4,094 −$2,272 -56%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,628 +$4,500 +276%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $4,101 −$4,029 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $256 −$250 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $764 −$750 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $41 −$40 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $1,794 +$3,534 +197%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $2,535 −$2,500 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $528 −$520 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 06 $508 −$500 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $203 +$182 +90%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $623 +$403 +65%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $609 −$600 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $810 +$524 +65%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 05 $508 −$500 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $1,013 +$705 +70%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $1,038 +$755 +73%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $103 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $651 −$651 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 03 $762 −$750 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $1,017 +$1,330 +131%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1,018 +$1,395 +137%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $1,111 +$541 +49%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner May 30 $508 −$500 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 30 $326 +$454 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY GLYPH 44¢ $99 11m
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner BUY GLYPH 45¢ $102 11m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner BUY Carstensz 70¢ $205 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Carstensz 20¢ $102 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 42¢ $102 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 70¢ $288 21h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Carstensz 71¢ $207 24h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos - Game 2 Winner BUY Yangon Galacticos 53¢ $198 25h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY PlayTime 5¢ $31 31h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Team Nemesis 62¢ $809 2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 14¢ $205 2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America SELL LGD Gaming 85¢ $387 2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 22¢ $102 2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America SELL PlayTime 75¢ $960 2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 52¢ $431 2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 35¢ $204 2d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 43¢ $203 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 35¢ $612 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $1,449 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 42¢ $620 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 1¢ $10 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 42¢ $254 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 39¢ $1,018 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $363 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $355 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $2,568 3d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 66¢ $1,414 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,314 4d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 29¢ $306 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,060 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.58 · official $193.58 (match) · 269 history records