Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:30:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
0F 0x0fab…f415 world 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate56%14W / 11L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$2
other 13% +$1
politics 7% $0
sports 5% +$1
economics 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.1% -8.6% 50% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 60% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 60% 0% -9.1%
all 25 +0.5% -9.1% 56% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.0%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.14 per $1 lost it wins $3.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses14 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage477d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $57 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $51 +$1 +2%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $61 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $43 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $200 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $20 −$2 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $51 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $49 $0 +0%
Solana ETF approved by July 31? Dec 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 25 $16 $0 +2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 01 $17 $0 -1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 30 $16 $0 -1%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Mar 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 17? Mar 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will 'Novocaine' gross more than 11m on opening weekend? Mar 18 $17 $0 +1%
BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election? Mar 15 $13 $0 +2%
Maryland vs. Michigan Mar 07 $15 +$2 +10%
Will Trump's joint address to Congress be less than 50 min? Mar 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump's 2025 joint address get 42-46m viewers? Mar 04 $13 $0 +1%
San Diego State vs. UNLV Mar 04 $13 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $57 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $57 3h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $32 17h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $20 17h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $38 21h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $13 21h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 26h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $17 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $33 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $33 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $17 35h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $51 38h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $35 42h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $14 42h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $3 20d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $3 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $19 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $48 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $3 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $5 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $13 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 23d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $13 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records