Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0fa9…22eb politics 592 markets active 8h ago coverage 343d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$302 (-2%) realized −$358 · open +$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate41%238W / 339L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$520now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$173
14 days+$33
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% +$69
world 28% −$199
other 22% −$68
sports 14% −$6
crypto 2% −$22
tech 1% −$111
economics 1% +$5
finance 0% $0
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -7.2% -16.0% 48% 39% +1.3%
≤30d 65 -15.3% -23.4% 40% 31% -6.6%
≤90d 115 -16.1% -24.1% 45% 33% -20.8%
all 577 -6.3% -15.2% 41% 33% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 33% -12.1%
10% -23.3% 29% -20.5%
15% -30.7% 25% -28.2%
20% -37.5% 22% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$13 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

343d coverage
Net worth$520
Realized−$358
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses238 / 339
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions15
Markets (closed)577 / 592
History coverage343d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 577 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $140 $140 +$0 (+0%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 84¢ $88 $86 −$2 (-2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 11¢ 34¢ $20 $62 +$42 (+214%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $36 $45 +$9 (+27%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 61¢ 82¢ $33 $45 +$11 (+34%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 38¢ 39¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+9%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $23 $20 −$3 (-15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $21 $18 −$3 (-15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $13 $11 −$3 (-21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 87¢ 86¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? No 73¢ 84¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+16%)
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $21 −$21 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $145 +$217 +150%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $50 +$36 +72%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $23 −$4 -15%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $11 −$8 -72%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $32 +$15 +46%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $41 +$19 +47%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $27 −$13 -48%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$7 +68%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $21 +$8 +36%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $10 +$8 +79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 +$1 +55%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $50 −$4 -9%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $50 −$6 -12%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 11 $50 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $265 +$2 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Jun 11 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $60 +$31 +52%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 $0 +27%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $27 −$2 -7%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $19 +$2 +9%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $40 +$10 +26%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 11 $267 −$3 -1%
World Cup: Fastest Goal in a Final Record Broken? Jun 10 $1 $0 +21%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $16 +$28 +178%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $21 +$2 +7%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 61 million views on day 5 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 64 and 65 million views on day 6 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their n Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 56 and 57 million views on day 4 Jun 06 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Ministe Jun 06 $24 −$24 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 58 million views on day 5 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 58 million views on day 4 Jun 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22? Jun 06 $17 −$17 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 55 million views on day 4 Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 61 and 62 million views on day 5 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 8h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 87¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 33¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 13¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 29¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 36¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 59¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 58¢ $2 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $312 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 33¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 23¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 47¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 65¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 63¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 43¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 45¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 58¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 60¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 66¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 65¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 64¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 64¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 58¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 53¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $519.77 · official $520.69 (match) · 2278 history records