Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:16:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0F 0x0fa9…09fa sports 87 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,969 (+25%) realized +$3,837 · open −$868
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate58%49W / 36L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day35.5pace
Fees−$207est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,478
7 days+$2,747
14 days+$2,478
30 days+$2,573
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$1,941
other 32% −$236
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +51.8% +37.3% 56% 28% +26.9%
≤30d 85 +36.8% +23.8% 58% 29% +15.4%
≤90d 85 +36.8% +23.8% 58% 29% +15.4%
all 85 +36.8% +23.8% 58% 29% +15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +23.8% 29% +15.4%
10% ← realistic here +12.0% 24% +4.4%
15% +1.1% 21% -5.7%
20% -8.8% 19% -14.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +67% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$39 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.86 per $1 lost it wins $2.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$3,837
Unrealized−$868
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses49 / 36
Est. fees paid−$207
Open positions2
Markets (closed)85 / 87
History coverage18d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day35.5
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England leading at halftime? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $849 $1 −$848 (-100%)
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 2¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $106 +$8 +8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $371 +$442 +119%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $141 +$44 +31%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $407 +$732 +180%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $214 +$1,296 +605%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $100 −$7 -7%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $293 −$10 -3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $36 +$111 +306%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$12 +118%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $47 −$46 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $19 −$18 -97%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $14 +$23 +167%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +11%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $203 +$42 +20%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $218 +$80 +37%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $52 +$66 +128%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $408 −$204 -50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $92 −$69 -76%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$12 -12%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $307 −$22 -7%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $107 +$9 +8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $769 +$28 +4%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $305 −$3 -1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $200 +$3 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $177 +$247 +139%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $99 +$4 +4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $197 +$2 +1%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $200 −$55 -27%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $147 +$1 +1%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $201 −$8 -4%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $100 +$3 +3%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $435 +$5 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $303 −$301 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $97 −$3 -4%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $143 +$317 +221%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $217 −$13 -6%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $100 +$93 +93%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $107 +$6 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 29¢ $101 25m
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 25m
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 21¢ $76 25m
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 29¢ $80 25m
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 33¢ $66 25m
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 25m
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 30¢ $94 25m
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 25m
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 25m
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 27¢ $93 25m
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 25m
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 25m
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $92 25m
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $100 25m
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $80 25m
England leading at halftime? SELL No 81¢ $382 26m
England leading at halftime? SELL No 66¢ $16 26m
England leading at halftime? BUY No 3¢ $15 27m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 1¢ $0 39m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 1¢ $1 39m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 1¢ $3 39m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 1¢ $0 39m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 5¢ $10 40m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 5¢ $0 40m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 5¢ $2 40m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 5¢ $1 40m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 5¢ $0 40m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 5¢ $1 40m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 5¢ $0 40m
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 5¢ $1 40m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.80 · official $1.80 (match) · 661 history records