Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:52:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0F 0x0fa6…2663 world 66 markets active 1d ago coverage 66d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL −$417 (-1%) realized −$266 · open −$151
Gross ROI / mkt +53% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate49%30W / 31L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$725per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$139est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$578now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$611
7 days+$611
14 days−$5,557
30 days−$297
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$114
other 21% +$1,598
sports 13% −$4,185
crypto 10% +$2,883
politics 8% −$854
tech 2% −$86
weather 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+38.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +74.2% +57.6% 100% 50% +66.6%
≤30d 55 +61.8% +46.4% 49% 42% -10.2%
≤90d 61 +53.0% +38.4% 49% 43% -10.3%
all 61 +53.0% +38.4% 49% 43% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +38.4% 43% -10.3%
10% +25.2% 36% -18.9%
15% +13.1% 28% -26.7%
20% +2.0% 25% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$1,012) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +49% → late +57% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$434 vs −$433 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$578
Realized−$266
Unrealized−$151
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses30 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$139
Open positions3
Markets (closed)61 / 66
History coverage66d
Avg bet$725
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 25¢ 46¢ $250 $465 +$215 (+86%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 10¢ $192 $89 −$103 (-54%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ $287 $24 −$263 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $412 +$611 +148%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $315 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $52 +$137 +264%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $138 −$138 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $995 −$780 -78%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $700 +$299 +43%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $422 −$420 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $128 +$41 +32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $985 +$513 +52%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $382 −$378 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $211 +$189 +90%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2,521 −$1,285 -51%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $408 −$312 -76%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $5,028 −$2,271 -45%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,655 +$161 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,580 +$847 +54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $300 −$150 -50%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 13 $407 +$631 +155%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $430 +$470 +109%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $56 +$9 +16%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2,574 −$2,500 -97%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 12 $743 −$504 -68%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $2,722 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $1,015 −$722 -71%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $944 +$618 +66%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be less than $600M at market close Jun 09 $0 $0 +358%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $1,289 −$402 -31%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $304 +$120 +40%
Will "Kai Harada" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 Tony Jun 08 $31 −$31 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $1,214 −$1,208 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $300 +$240 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -94%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 05 $1,133 −$95 -8%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 04 $73 −$37 -50%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 04 $126 −$63 -50%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $723 +$178 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $11 +$225 +2109%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $110 −$48 -44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 02 $26 −$25 -97%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-J Jun 02 $58 −$58 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $2,730 +$3,706 +136%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $1,849 +$372 +20%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $754 +$250 +33%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $2,449 +$574 +23%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $199 +$62 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 73¢ $101 30h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals AND Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY $10 31h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $102 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $577.99 · official $577.99 (match) · 484 history records