Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0fa5…c859 crypto 87 markets active 2d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$140 (+10%) realized +$140 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate55%48W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day37.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$40
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -1.5% -10.9% 55% 47% -6.9%
≤30d 87 -1.5% -10.9% 55% 47% -6.9%
≤90d 87 -1.5% -10.9% 55% 47% -6.9%
all 87 -1.5% -10.9% 55% 47% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 47% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 39% -15.8%
15% -27.2% 30% -23.9%
20% -34.3% 25% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$140
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses48 / 39
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)87 / 87
History coverage4d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day37.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 87 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +129%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$3 -31%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$6 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$6 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 10 $51 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $36 −$6 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$11 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$32 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 202 history records