Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:57:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0fa4…f4ea weather 1514 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d only
✗ bot/MM pace (305 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$146 (-1%) realized −$146 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate96%1125W / 49L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day305.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,585now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$248
7 days+$152
14 days+$152
30 days+$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$398
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (305 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1174 +2.5% -7.2% 96% 7% -7.9%
≤30d 1174 +2.5% -7.2% 96% 7% -7.9%
≤90d 1174 +2.5% -7.2% 96% 7% -7.9%
all 1174 +2.5% -7.2% 96% 7% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover305.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 7% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 6% -16.7%
15% -24.2% 6% -24.8%
20% -31.7% 6% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$2,585
Realized−$146
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses1125 / 49
Open positions379
Markets (closed)1174 / 1514
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day305.0
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 379 History 1174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or below on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C or higher on June 28? No 100¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 108°F or higher on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 41°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 110°F or higher on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 7°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 92°F or higher on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 6°C or below on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 28? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 73°F or below on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 28? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or higher on June 28? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June 29? No 100¢ 99¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 29? No 100¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 29? No 99¢ 97¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C or higher on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 1? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 31? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 2? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on May 31? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 25? Jun 28 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 28? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 17? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 22? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on May 30? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 31? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on June 2 Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 20? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 17? Jun 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 21? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 28? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 16? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 17? Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or higher on June 6? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 18? Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 20? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 9? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 8? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or below on June 27? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C or below on June 27? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C or below on June Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 27? Jun 28 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 27? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C or higher on June 27 Jun 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 27? Jun 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 27? Jun 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C or higher on June Jun 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 27? Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $5 3m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $5 3m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or below on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $5 42m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $5 42m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $5 43m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 30? BUY No 99¢ $5 43m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $5 43m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $5 52m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 29 BUY No 99¢ $5 52m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $5 53m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on June BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 106-107°F on June 29 BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 108°F or higher on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 106-107°F on June 2 BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 110-111°F on June 29 BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on June 29 BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 29? BUY No 92¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C or below on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 29? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C or higher on June 29 BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 29? BUY No 97¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C or below on June 2 BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,585.04 · official $2,585.02 (match) · 3500 history records