Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:16:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0F 0x0fa3…c73f crypto 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,122 (-6%) realized −$3,122 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate69%50W / 22L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$677per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$169est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$167
7 days+$662
14 days+$1,261
30 days+$820
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$3,209
other 28% +$1,078
crypto 21% −$1,232
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +0.3% -9.3% 67% 59% -3.0%
≤30d 44 -3.9% -13.1% 68% 50% -5.7%
≤90d 72 -4.3% -13.4% 69% 54% -15.8%
all 72 -4.3% -13.4% 69% 54% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 54% -15.8%
10% -21.7% 35% -23.8%
15% -29.3% 21% -31.2%
20% -36.2% 7% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$506) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$125 vs −$437 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,122
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses50 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$169
Open positions0
Markets (closed)72 / 72
History coverage34d
Avg bet$677
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 72 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France to score first vs. Norway? Jun 26 $111 +$42 +38%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $121 +$21 +17%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $101 +$24 +24%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $342 −$153 -45%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $221 +$51 +23%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $221 −$211 -95%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $199 +$55 +27%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $272 −$103 -38%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $272 +$50 +18%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $272 +$58 +21%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $454 +$163 +36%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $295 +$161 +55%
England to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 23 $201 −$47 -23%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $251 −$111 -44%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $1 $0 +5%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $362 +$89 +25%
France to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 22 $319 +$42 +13%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $506 −$182 -36%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $651 +$461 +71%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $601 +$51 +8%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $454 −$351 -77%
Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 21 $681 +$270 +40%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $505 −$320 -63%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $505 +$252 +50%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $716 +$230 +32%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $503 +$130 +26%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $1,105 +$178 +16%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $1,007 −$31 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +13%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,028 +$190 +18%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,891 +$45 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $1,804 +$59 +3%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $1,707 +$159 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 29 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 29 $307 −$295 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 29 $403 −$400 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 29 $409 +$165 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 29 $405 +$89 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 25 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 25 $225 −$220 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 25 $173 +$50 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 25 $152 +$25 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 25 $132 +$25 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 25 $82 +$50 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France to score first vs. Norway? SELL Yes 100¢ $153 54m
France to score first vs. Norway? BUY Yes 72¢ $111 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 85¢ $121 18h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 80¢ $101 20h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 43¢ $189 20h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $342 22h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $272 22h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over $10 22h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 81¢ $221 26h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 81¢ $221 37h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 52¢ $169 44h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $199 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 82¢ $272 47h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $322 47h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $331 47h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $272 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 84¢ $272 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $454 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $295 2d
England to score first vs. Ghana? SELL Yes 63¢ $154 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 35¢ $140 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $251 3d
England to score first vs. Ghana? BUY Yes 81¢ $201 3d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 95¢ $1 3d
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 80¢ $362 3d
France to score first vs. Iraq? SELL Yes 100¢ $361 3d
France to score first vs. Iraq? BUY Yes 88¢ $319 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 39¢ $324 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $506 4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $651 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 280 history records