Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:35:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
0F 0x0fa2…05aa other 166 markets active 1h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$484 (+17%) realized +$312 · open +$172
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate48%39W / 43L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$1,557now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days+$10
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$242
politics 24% +$29
world 10% +$90
sports 6% +$16
tech 4% −$20
culture 4% −$3
economics 1% +$16
crypto 1% −$1
finance 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -14.1% -22.3% 54% 38% -11.2%
≤30d 22 +18.5% +7.2% 45% 36% -3.4%
≤90d 57 +11.7% +1.0% 44% 33% -5.0%
all 82 +11.1% +0.5% 48% 39% +8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.5% 39% +8.4%
10% -9.1% 32% -2.0%
15% -17.9% 23% -11.5%
20% -26.0% 21% -20.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$4 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$1,557
Realized+$312
Unrealized+$172
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses39 / 43
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions84
Markets (closed)82 / 166
History coverage181d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 84 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Blue tsunami in 2026? No 52¢ 58¢ $213 $240 +$27 (+13%)
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? No 77¢ 77¢ $100 $101 +$0 (+0%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in D-Wave Quantum Inc.? No 11¢ 27¢ $32 $79 +$47 (+145%)
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $74 $71 −$3 (-4%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 64¢ 68¢ $64 $68 +$4 (+7%)
Will SBF appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31? No 81¢ 72¢ $59 $53 −$6 (-11%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $53 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in IonQ, Inc.? No 32¢ 84¢ $20 $52 +$32 (+163%)
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races? No 46¢ 48¢ $46 $48 +$2 (+5%)
Will the Republicans win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026? Yes 81¢ 93¢ $40 $47 +$6 (+15%)
Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? No 73¢ 81¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+12%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in Pfizer Inc.? No 81¢ 86¢ $41 $44 +$3 (+6%)
Will Angel Reese have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season? Yes 53¢ 65¢ $35 $42 +$8 (+22%)
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 37¢ 40¢ $37 $40 +$2 (+6%)
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026? No 58¢ 74¢ $26 $34 +$7 (+28%)
Will Lee Jun-seok be arrested before 2027? No 56¢ 81¢ $23 $32 +$10 (+44%)
Will Jacob Misiorowski strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 41¢ 58¢ $23 $32 +$9 (+41%)
Will Timothée Chalamet be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026? No 73¢ 92¢ $26 $32 +$6 (+25%)
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? No 74¢ 91¢ $22 $27 +$5 (+22%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in Freeport-McMoRan Inc.? No 83¢ 82¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Housing for the 21st Century Act become law this year? Yes 68¢ 90¢ $16 $21 +$5 (+33%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in Anduril Industries, Inc.? No 60¢ 63¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+5%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc.? No 12¢ 19¢ $12 $19 +$7 (+63%)
Will Letitia James be arrested before 2027? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+5%)
Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms? No 86¢ 87¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US federal government take a stake in Micron Technology, Inc. Jun 20 $5 $0 +8%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Kendrick Lamar release an album in 2026? Jun 18 $43 −$1 -3%
Will Bernie endorse Alan Grayson for FL-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +52%
Will the US federal government take a stake in Lockheed Martin Corpora Jun 17 $3 +$1 +19%
Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Click Bishop advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary electi Jun 17 $12 +$2 +19%
Will Rodrigo Pacheco win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -56%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3 $0 -13%
Will Lisa Cook be arrested before 2027? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +24%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 10 $2 $0 -16%
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Jun 10 $33 −$2 -6%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the Jun 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will Alex Cora be the next permanent manager of the Philadelphia Phill Jun 08 $2 +$14 +601%
Blue wave in 2026? Jun 06 $8 +$7 +82%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $52 −$8 -15%
Will Bernie endorse Zach Wahls for IA-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -56%
Will Fiona Ma win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $3 −$2 -58%
Will Aaron Rodgers retire before next season? May 25 $18 +$10 +57%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? May 21 $55 −$27 -48%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Trump say "Epstein" in May? May 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Will "In the Grey" score at least 55 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete May 18 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? May 17 $8 +$3 +41%
Will Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027? May 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will RB Leipzig finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standing May 17 $5 $0 -2%
Will Hoffenheim finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standing May 17 $7 +$5 +69%
Will Drake feature Young Thug on ICEMAN? May 17 $4 +$46 +1265%
Will Stuttgart finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026? May 13 $11 +$2 +20%
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? May 13 $23 +$13 +56%
Will Drake feature 21 Savage on ICEMAN? May 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN? May 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Drake feature Sexyy Red on ICEMAN? May 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Leverkusen finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standing May 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 08 $52 +$4 +8%
Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026? May 08 $21 +$7 +34%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" score at least 65 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomat May 08 $4 −$3 -97%
Will Trump say "Autopen" this week? May 07 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Zach Werenski win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy? May 06 $7 +$6 +86%
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026? May 06 $3 $0 +12%
Will Blake Lively attend Taylor Swift's wedding? May 06 $0 $0 -44%
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Apr 30 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +5%
Will Guatemala win on 2026-03-27? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy? Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $53 40m
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 BUY No 37¢ $38 1h
Will the US federal government take a stake in Micron Technology, Inc. SELL No 79¢ $2 11h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $64 11h
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? BUY No 65¢ $7 40h
Will Bernie endorse Dan Osborn for NE-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? SELL Yes 40¢ $5 41h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 44¢ $141 41h
Will the US federal government take a stake in Pfizer Inc.? BUY No 80¢ $4 2d
Will JUUL relaunch Crème Brûlée flavor by 2027? BUY No 79¢ $8 2d
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races? BUY No 46¢ $47 2d
Will Kendrick Lamar release an album in 2026? SELL No 57¢ $17 2d
Will the US federal government take a stake in TikTok USDS Joint Ventu BUY No 75¢ $4 2d
Will the US federal government take a stake in Pfizer Inc.? BUY No 81¢ $38 2d
Will "Supergirl" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? BUY No 22¢ $3 3d
Will Bernie endorse Alan Grayson for FL-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET? SELL No 96¢ $5 3d
Will the US federal government take a stake in Lockheed Martin Corpora SELL No 91¢ $4 3d
Will the US federal government take a stake in Micron Technology, Inc. SELL No 78¢ $4 3d
Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI? SELL No 75¢ $11 3d
Will Click Bishop advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary electi SELL No 57¢ $9 3d
Will Rodrigo Pacheco win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 3d
Will the US federal government take a stake in D-Wave Quantum Inc.? BUY No 11¢ $9 3d
Will the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc. BUY No 12¢ $12 3d
Will the US federal government take a stake in D-Wave Quantum Inc.? BUY No 11¢ $7 3d
Will the US federal government take a stake in Anduril Industries, Inc BUY No 60¢ $12 3d
Will the US federal government take a stake in D-Wave Quantum Inc.? BUY No 11¢ $6 4d
Will the US federal government take a stake in Anduril Industries, Inc BUY No 60¢ $6 4d
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $8 4d
Will the US federal government take a stake in GlobalFoundries Inc.? BUY Yes 62¢ $12 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,556.60 · official $1,556.61 (match) · 636 history records