Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:46:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0F 0x0fa1…bf73 sports 1400 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 137d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,680 (+10%) realized +$2,658 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%647W / 759L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day25.1pace
Fees−$243est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$396now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$387
7 days−$327
14 days−$214
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$2,192
other 10% +$225
world 0% +$30
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -31.7% -38.2% 38% 38% -16.5%
≤30d 197 -5.8% -14.8% 47% 47% -10.2%
≤90d 749 -1.7% -11.0% 45% 45% -3.4%
all 1406 +3.8% -6.1% 46% 46% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.1% 46% -2.2%
10% ← realistic here -15.0% 46% -11.5%
15% -23.3% 46% -20.1%
20% -30.8% 43% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$16 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$396
Realized+$2,658
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses647 / 759
Est. fees paid−$243
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1406 / 1400
History coverage138d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day25.1
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1406 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 60¢ 66¢ $109 $119 +$10 (+9%)
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $100 $112 +$13 (+13%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 44¢ 44¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 495 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-28? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-02-01? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will CA Tucumán win on 2026-01-27? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-02-02? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-01-04? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will SD Eibar vs. Real Sporting de Gijón end in a draw? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-01-19? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-01-30? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-01-28? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Kasımpaşa SK win on 2026-01-30? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-02-01? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-01-29? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-02-02? Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-01-28? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-02-01? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-28? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2026-01-28? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-01-29? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-31? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-02-02? Jun 21 $4 +$4 +106%
Will Dinamo 1948 win on 2026-01-30? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-01-29? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-02-02? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $126 +$87 +69%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $103 −$101 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $86 −$85 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $34 −$34 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $306 +$239 +78%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $62 +$37 +59%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $120 +$58 +48%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $107 −$106 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $54 −$54 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $36 +$24 +67%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $202 +$99 +49%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $30 −$29 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $26 +$24 +93%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $15 +$9 +61%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $29 −$28 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 +$88 +173%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $202 +$95 +47%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $21 +$9 +41%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $25 +$10 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $16 11m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $31 27m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $22 29m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $17 39m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $4 39m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $4 39m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $7 39m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $9 39m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $46 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $21 4h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $213 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $54 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $22 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $22 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $3 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $2 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $24 15h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $103 18h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $12 19h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $60 19h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $10 19h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $26 19h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $23 19h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $1 19h
Ceará SC vs. Botafogo FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 16¢ $17 20h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $99 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $178 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $21 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $16 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $16 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $395.52 · official $399.16 (match) · 3500 history records