Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:26:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0F 0x0fa1…9de9 sports 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$868 (-7%) realized −$868 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%27W / 38L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,008
7 days+$1,008
14 days+$1,015
30 days+$1,032
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$758
sports 29% −$1,361
politics 8% −$132
crypto 1% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +33.7% +20.9% 100% 100% +20.9%
≤30d 16 +34.7% +21.9% 88% 88% +21.0%
≤90d 19 +24.8% +12.9% 79% 79% +19.8%
all 65 -22.4% -29.8% 42% 42% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.8% 42% -15.0%
10% -36.5% 38% -23.1%
15% -42.6% 31% -30.6%
20% -48.2% 20% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -45% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$65 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$868
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses27 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage172d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2,993 +$1,008 +34%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $4 +$1 +36%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $3 +$2 +46%
England vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $4 +$1 +36%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $4 +$1 +23%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $3 +$2 +44%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $3 +$2 +48%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $5 +$2 +29%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $4 +$1 +23%
Will LDU de Quito win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $7 +$3 +36%
CR Flamengo vs. Cusco FC: O/U 2.5 May 27 $10 +$4 +40%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline May 27 $5 +$4 +70%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 3 Winner May 27 $4 +$11 +238%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Will CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia end May 04 $1 $0 -6%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins May 03 $10 +$2 +22%
Wizards vs. Cavaliers Feb 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Spread: Hornets (-6.5) Feb 12 $10 +$6 +61%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) Feb 12 $10 +$7 +72%
Kings vs. Jazz: O/U 232.5 Feb 12 $10 +$8 +79%
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) Feb 12 $10 +$9 +85%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Feb 11 $10 $0 -2%
Spread: Nets (-4.5) Feb 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5 Feb 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves Feb 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Hawks vs. Hornets Feb 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5 Feb 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Kings vs. Jazz Feb 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Warriors Feb 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Pistons vs. Raptors Feb 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Pacers vs. Nets Feb 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bucks vs. Magic Feb 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5) Feb 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) Feb 09 $2,000 −$270 -14%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 28 $1,000 −$132 -13%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 26 $4,000 +$596 +15%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 22 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jan 22 $30 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jan 17 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jan 13 $7 +$4 +58%
Chargers vs. Patriots Jan 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Patriots (-4.5) Jan 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Chargers vs. Patriots: 1H Moneyline Jan 12 $5 −$5 -100%
49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 43.5 Jan 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 51.5 Jan 11 $10 +$7 +65%
Bills vs. Jaguars: 1H O/U 24.5 Jan 11 $3 +$3 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 79¢ $4,001 38m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $2,993 1h
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY paiN 52¢ $3 13d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY G2 67¢ $3 13d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 13d
England vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY No 73¢ $4 13d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 13d
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $3 13d
United States vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $3 13d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 13d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $6 20d
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-28? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 22d
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-28? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 22d
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline BUY Thunder 58¢ $5 24d
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY paiN Gaming Academy 29¢ $4 24d
CR Flamengo vs. Cusco FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $10 24d
Will LDU de Quito win on 2026-05-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $7 24d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers $31 34d
Will CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia end SELL Yes 42¢ $1 46d
Will CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza vs. CSyD Defensa y Justicia end BUY Yes 43¢ $1 46d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 81¢ $10 47d
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies SELL Nuggets 63¢ $10 128d
Spread: Nets (-4.5) BUY Nets 57¢ $10 128d
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) BUY Thunder 58¢ $10 128d
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5 BUY Under 55¢ $10 128d
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves BUY Trail Blazers 34¢ $10 128d
Hawks vs. Hornets BUY Hawks 40¢ $10 128d
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 237.5 BUY Under 53¢ $10 128d
Kings vs. Jazz BUY Kings 37¢ $10 128d
Spread: Hornets (-6.5) BUY Hawks 62¢ $10 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records