Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:40:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0F 0x0fa1…5fe0 other 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$723 (+3%) realized +$716 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%16W / 25L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$549per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$322now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$89
7 days+$649
14 days+$500
30 days+$500
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$377
crypto 18% −$1
sports 12% +$963
world 0% −$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -38.2% -44.1% 29% 21% -7.1%
≤30d 41 +29.1% +16.8% 39% 34% -7.8%
≤90d 41 +29.1% +16.8% 39% 34% -7.8%
all 41 +29.1% +16.8% 39% 34% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.8% 34% -7.8%
10% +5.6% 32% -16.6%
15% -4.6% 27% -24.7%
20% -14.0% 17% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +89% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$267 vs −$151 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$322
Realized+$716
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses16 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions8
Markets (closed)41 / 49
History coverage13d
Avg bet$549
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 86¢ $83 $86 +$3 (+4%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? No 62¢ 62¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $32 $39 +$7 (+21%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $35 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? No 29¢ 28¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? No 26¢ 26¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? No 17¢ 16¢ $23 $23 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $102 +$51 +50%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$44 +442%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $27 −$27 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $88 +$31 +36%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $12 −$11 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 +$44 +216%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4,909 +$2,346 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4,852 +$48 +1%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $16 −$15 -94%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 20 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $43 −$43 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4,412 +$423 +10%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,276 −$2,276 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $3,025 +$895 +30%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4,150 −$381 -9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $375 −$172 -46%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$53 +344%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,032 −$204 -20%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -48%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $188 +$112 +60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$69 +134%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $4 +$66 +1845%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $206 +$26 +13%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $100 +$30 +30%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $19 +$21 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $14 +$6 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $35 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $47 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 26¢ $25 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 17¢ $24 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 29¢ $26 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 62¢ $47 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $102 26h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $27 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 18¢ $10 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 15¢ $11 26h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 37¢ $7 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $88 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $21 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $4,909 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 37¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 37¢ $27 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $4,852 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 91¢ $4,412 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 19¢ $19 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 38¢ $39 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 42¢ $43 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $34 5d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $1,471 5d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $302 5d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $2,147 5d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $3,025 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $322.15 · official $322.16 (match) · 115 history records