Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:47:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f9e…122c world 24 markets active 2d ago coverage 439d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate25%6W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$2
other 19% $0
crypto 13% $0
culture 6% $0
tech 5% $0
politics 5% $0
economics 5% $0
sports 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -10.4% -18.9% 25% 12% -10.5%
≤30d 8 -10.4% -18.9% 25% 12% -10.5%
≤90d 8 -10.4% -18.9% 25% 12% -10.5%
all 24 -3.9% -13.0% 25% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 4% -10.0%
10% -21.4% 0% -18.6%
15% -29.0% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

439d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses6 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage439d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +18%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $37 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $14 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $35 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -5%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? Jun 24 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 28 $19 $0 +0%
Will Fartcoin dip to $0.85 before June? May 27 $19 $0 -0%
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before June? May 27 $19 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? May 26 $19 $0 +1%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 24 $19 $0 -0%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend May 21 $18 $0 -0%
Will Pacers vs. Nuggets be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? May 17 $22 $0 -1%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? Apr 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 05 $3 $0 -5%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 04 $22 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $17 44h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 44h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 45h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 45h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 45h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $3 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $1 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $36 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $23 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $14 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $14 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $11 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $23 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $34 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 64¢ $10 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 6d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 182d
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? SELL No 99¢ $19 357d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $2 370d
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? BUY No 99¢ $19 384d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records