Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:14:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f9d…3bb7 crypto 166 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,429 (-4%) realized −$6,429 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate66%110W / 56L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$883per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 140d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$12,207
sports 0% +$582
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +19.0% +7.7% 80% 40% +33.5%
≤30d 41 +10.6% +0.1% 71% 37% +10.8%
≤90d 165 -8.0% -16.8% 67% 31% -15.8%
all 166 -8.6% -17.3% 66% 31% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 31% -16.5%
10% -25.2% 16% -24.5%
15% -32.4% 12% -31.8%
20% -39.0% 9% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$525) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -24% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$159 vs −$519 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,429
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses110 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)166 / 166
History coverage140d
Avg bet$883
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 166 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET Jun 21 $106 −$50 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET Jun 21 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3AM ET Jun 21 $201 +$9 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $204 +$77 +38%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $609 +$582 +96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $281 −$6 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $210 +$238 +114%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $151 +$12 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $103 +$68 +66%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $303 +$41 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $160 +$609 +381%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $52 −$46 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5AM ET Jun 01 $111 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8AM ET May 31 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1PM ET May 30 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12PM ET May 30 $31 +$12 +38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? May 30 $157 +$45 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8AM ET May 30 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5AM ET May 30 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2AM ET May 30 $52 +$33 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1PM ET May 29 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12PM ET May 29 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 29 $376 −$25 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1PM ET May 28 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? May 27 $150 +$20 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $205 −$73 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9AM ET May 25 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24? May 24 $101 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 24 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 24 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 24 $203 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 24 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 24 $61 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3AM ET May 24 $74 −$46 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12PM ET May 23 $264 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11AM ET May 23 $180 −$29 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8AM ET May 23 $264 +$30 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7AM ET May 23 $260 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4AM ET May 23 $155 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2AM ET May 23 $231 +$30 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11AM ET May 22 $179 +$52 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4PM ET May 21 $170 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12PM ET May 21 $168 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9AM ET May 21 $159 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1PM ET May 20 $131 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11AM ET May 19 $147 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8AM ET May 19 $144 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4PM ET May 18 $682 −$680 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3PM ET May 18 $679 +$7 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $211 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $210 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $201 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $281 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 71¢ $204 27h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $244 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $365 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $114 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 87¢ $101 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL No 31¢ $162 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 31¢ $180 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 59¢ $206 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 69¢ $243 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 28¢ $210 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? SELL No 100¢ $163 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? BUY No 92¢ $151 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? SELL No 100¢ $171 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? BUY No 58¢ $103 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $344 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? BUY No 87¢ $303 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? SELL No 100¢ $639 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? SELL No 34¢ $130 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? BUY No 15¢ $106 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? BUY No 14¢ $15 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? BUY No 13¢ $39 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 714 history records