Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:41:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f9d…29f8 other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$133 (-19%) realized −$133 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%7W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$65
14 days−$45
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$104
sports 35% +$79
crypto 3% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +35.7% +22.8% 54% 54% +4.8%
≤30d 19 -1.9% -11.2% 37% 37% -17.3%
≤90d 19 -1.9% -11.2% 37% 37% -17.3%
all 19 -1.9% -11.2% 37% 37% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 37% -17.3%
10% -19.7% 37% -25.2%
15% -27.5% 37% -32.5%
20% -34.6% 26% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$23 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses7 / 12
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 26
History coverage9d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $50 +$22 +43%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AN Jun 18 $31 +$68 +222%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$26 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$30 +291%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 +$33 +92%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +223%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score AND Ghana vs. Panama: Bot BUY 12¢ $18 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $30 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 26¢ $31 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026- BUY 69¢ $30 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 30¢ $31 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 AND Will F BUY 23¢ $51 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria BUY $5 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $60 6d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $68 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND W BUY 44¢ $41 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes $10 6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $33 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 33¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records